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| Image from WeatherBell. |
My ideas for a cold January are evolving as expected, with the latest CFS v2 weekly forecasts calling for an outright obliteration of the Arctic floodgates in the 1st to 2nd weeks of January, as pictured above.
Siberia's snowfall, which has a correlation with temperatures in the US during the winter, was below normal in the first half of October. This would call for a warm December and possibly first half of January. As we have already determined, December is lost as for persistent cold and snow. However, as I have been calling for, this winter will be backloaded, with the most cold and snow hitting in January and February.
This CFS v2 weekly forecast for the 3rd week of January shows yet another strong cold outbreak infiltrating the Lower 48 after a brief warm-up. Again, we can see Siberia's October snow cover fitting in here. Siberia did moderate in the middle of October, which would affect January. What I expect based on my findings in Siberia is that cold outbreaks will become stronger in January with each storm that passes through. Periodic warm-ups are inevitable, but cold outbreaks will become more persistent, long-lasting and stronger.
We're still a month away, so this is nowhere near written in stone. However, if Siberia does take hold, cold weather would be expected in the month of January.
Andrew
8 comments:
Well. Now I can't wait for January........ :-)
Thanks for this, at least should be snow and not rain like last year (for after January)!
YES!!!
december was to be cood also and look what happened, how can we know janury will be cold?
Its only December 5th. The Meteorological winter just started 5 days ago. December can still be cold.
andrew says its not going a cold december and i belive him its going to be back up into the mid 60's next week for the northeast
@ Anonymous 1 - Do you mean good or cold? Either way, I never saw anybody forecasting either of those... Plus it is only December 6th (now, this post was the 5th), so.. What makes you say it "was to be cood also", you mean the first 6 days?
Getting a -NAO and -AO this winter should not be a problem. The -PDO will keep things at bay on the east coast but most importantly we need a +PNA and as of now we are no where near one. It's early and still lots of time left. Ps: anything JB says usually does the opposite. Lol
Hi Andrew, Great news. Loving it. Think people and myself forget winter doesn't really start until 21st of December. So we got time.What are your thoughts on Big storms this year? Thanks JT
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