The GFS model has been trending with the potential for a storm in this timeframe for several days now. Let's take a closer look.
This forecast for the evening of January 11th shows the storm system in the southern Midwest, producing massive amounts of precipitation over the region. Snow appears to be falling in Oklahoma, Kansas and Texas, to name a few, but only light snow. Extreme northeast Texas appears to be receiving quite a bit of accumulating snow. On the warm side of the system, a partially-linear precipitation signal is appearing in Arkansas, Texas and Louisiana, something that may hint at a severe weather situation. Further to the northeast, we see an arm of heavier rain and maybe embedded thunderstorms in the Virginias, Kentucky and Tennessee. Lighter rain is ongoing in the Ohio Valley and Northeast.
The GFS has been trending with this solution of a storm coming through the South and shooting northeast through the Ohio Valley to bring accumulating snows to portions of the Ohio Valley and Midwest. The cold air that follows would likely bring fair lake effect snow to the Great Lakes.
Moving ahead 12 hours, we find a lot of heavy precipitation in the Ohio Valley, falling as -that's right- snow. That purple color is north of the blue rain/snow line, and that little 'x' in the middle of that purple color shows 1.95 inches of precipitation, meaning nearly 20 inches of snow could be falling there! Heavy snow would also be going in in the rest of the Ohio Valley, with Midwestern states like Illinois and Missouri getting the lighter snows.
This has indeed been showing up for a long time on the GFS model, meaning it has a better potential to happen. Now, in the end, it might not even happen, but the fact that the GFS has been so consistent on bringing this storm back for each model run tells me that confidence is only growing with regards to this system.
Andrew
The GFS has been trending with this solution of a storm coming through the South and shooting northeast through the Ohio Valley to bring accumulating snows to portions of the Ohio Valley and Midwest. The cold air that follows would likely bring fair lake effect snow to the Great Lakes.
This has indeed been showing up for a long time on the GFS model, meaning it has a better potential to happen. Now, in the end, it might not even happen, but the fact that the GFS has been so consistent on bringing this storm back for each model run tells me that confidence is only growing with regards to this system.
Andrew
11 comments:
Based upon everything I've been seeing the upper mid-west will stuck in a dry pattern for the first 1/2 - 3/4 of January. Any thoughts Andrew?
More like the first roughly 2 weeks. After that, gradual improvement should occur.
This storm will probably trend way northwest with time. The eroding snowcover over the next week-two weeks will shift the baro zone much farther north, resulting in a farther north storm track.
Another tricky winter pattern for the mid-Atlantic it seems. None of the bitterly cold air or early Jan snowstorms forecast earlier have materialized. Have had a couple 1-2" snowfalls, a couple nights into the upper 20's. Otherwise a boring, uneventful winter like last year. And I live in the mountains...not like winter at all in DC, Balt.
Another uneventful winter in the mid-Atlantic. Predicted bitter cold temps and snowstorms have not appeared. Pattern appears to be going zonal. I live in the mountains near VA/WVA line and looking like no winter again this year. Had a couple 1-2" snowfalls, temps into the upper 20's a couple nights. Otherwise, blaah. And in Dec there was a lot of noise about winter arriving late Dec. Musta missed the bus...again!
@ anonymous 4: Winter hasn't even been here for 2 weeks and you are already saying uneventful.... *sigh* @ you dumbbutts
Patients people.Winter has just started.
so if kansas could see light snow from this as it is projected now what happens if it does break a little further north will it turn into a major storm for the area? blizzard, heavy snow, any ideas??
So where's this storm now? I live in s.w. ont. and all I see for this timeframe is mild with showers. I think Andrew better stop smoking the cheap stuff.
Anonymous on January 4: It's still up in the air, hence why I haven't been posting on it. And that smoking reference is not appreciated.
Ok bud, just joking around with that comment. I think some of us might like to see updates on those kinds of predictions. Either the call is still a go or a bust, doesn't matter.
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