April 5-6 Potential Coastal Wintry Storm

Model guidance remains iffy on the prospect of a potentially wintry storm system between April 5-6 in New England.

Discussion: Previous model guidance indicated this storm would be a mostly rain event, but new model guidance has this storm system producing wintry precipitation in southern Maine and a few other coastal states in the wake of this system. The American model, pictured above, has the system stay in above-freezing temperature territory for the heavy majority of its lifespan, hitting coastal towns with a rain event. As is the case with springtime storms, temperatures are much more marginal with this storm than typical winter storms. There is potential that there will be no snow from this system and it could be all rain. Logical forecast to go with right now is a rain event with weak backend snowfall. Heaviest snowfall (if any) would affect Maine, the state furthest north and thus furthest into the colder temperatures. Light lake effect precipitation is likely to commence when the storm moves off, but as winter draws to a close, we find the potential for massive lake effect snow events rapidly decreasing. American model has snowfall amounts staying at or below 2 inches for select coastal areas, whose locations are to be determined.

Andrew