Discussion: The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a long range area of severe weather over the aforementioned areas. Short range model guidance shows a thunderstorm complex developing over these areas in the early morning hours of Monday. Current predictions indicate this complex will develop as a non-severe event in far eastern KY/TN, and then blossom into a rather large complex, mainly confined to Kentucky and Tennessee. Forecasts in the instability department are rather unenthusiastic with this event, bringing minimal instability into these regions. Additionally, cloud bases do not look to be low enough to produce an efficient tornado threat. It appears that the main threat will be provoked and sustained by moderately strong lower level winds and modest shear. Not looking like a major event in this case according to the most recent model guidance.
Andrew
3 comments:
I hope this is the way it stays. I'm in Nashville and do NOT want to see any severe weather. Thank you for the posting
Just because you can't find anything is no reason to write it off. Look at the SPC's disco. Why did the best forecasters in the country introduce a risk area? If I have trouble believing a forecast, I always look through the disco. After a thorough analysis of everything (should take about an hour, so not too long), and I still can't find anything, THEN I would write it off.
Anonymous at 6:43: I never said I was writing it off. Based on recent model guidance, the threat does not look that great. However, I am sure the SPC forecasters have much stronger evidence that suggest there is a formidable risk for this event, and I'm not seeing it just yet.
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