Forecast Type: Tornado
Categorical SPC Risk: Slight
Models Used: NAM
Confidence: High
This is the first forecast of what was titled Project TRAaP at The Weather Centre. The TRAaP forecast, which stands for Tornado Risk Analysis and Prediction, is used when the risk for a tornado is present.
Discussion: Have reviewed multiple factors involved in severe weather prediction this afternoon, and after weighing them in order of importance, I have outlined western Kansas, western Oklahoma and northern Texas as areas at risk for a tornado. As stated in the parameters printed just below the forecast graphic, the Storm Prediction Center has outlined a slight risk area nearly identical to what I outlined above. General idea that SPC was feeling on this situation was reciprocated at The Weather Centre after reviewing the model forecasts from the NAM. Current timing appears to be after sunset, as high resolution models project thunderstorm initiation around 7-9 PM CT. Largest threat appears to be in western KS and the panhandle of Oklahoma, as model guidance indicates the largest instability and tornadic parameters are centered over these areas. Confidence in this forecast is high as the date of the event is just over 24 hours away as of the time of this typing.
Andrew
1 comment:
By the way, tornadoes can be predicted, but they take skill to do it. You have the capability to do it, but simply looking at EHI or CAPE is no good. Never look at CAPE or CIN maps, only analyze them in a sounding. Also use a hodograph to analyze each layer of winds, do not just use 0-6 km bulk shear. Severe storm forecasting is the most complicated yet fastest growing area of meteorology we have. Jump into it!
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