There appears to be growing evidence that tomorrow will hold what is being called a 'Significant severe weather episode' by the Storm Prediction Center, as shown in their most recent discussion:
...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE CONSISTING OF POTENTIALLY
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERAL TORNADOES APPEARS INCREASINGLY
LIKELY ON THU...
BOWING SEGMENTS AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WILL
BE FAVORED...ESPECIALLY WITH NRN EXTENT GIVEN THE DEGREE OF SHEAR.
POTENTIAL WILL ALSO EXIST FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING AHEAD
OF THE QLCS AS MLCIN BECOMES MINIMAL. THIS WOULD SEEM TO BE MORE
PREVALENT WITH SRN EXTENT WHERE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE
PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER. SWATHS OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR
PROBABLE ALONG WITH A ROBUST TORNADO RISK /SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
SIGNIFICANT/.
Model guidance suggests squall line formation will commence around noon to 2 PM central time tomorrow afternoon. The squall line is expected to begin in Oklahoma/Kansas/Texas and quickly shift eastward. Further development is expected, first along the southern fringes to cover the Gulf Coast, and then building towards the Great Lakes. This would fall right in line with the Storm Prediction Center's outlook, with a severe squall line building north as the afternoon progresses into evening. Basically anyone in the moderate risk area should expect to bear the brunt of this potentially hazardous squall line. The above image valid for 10 PM central time, shows the squall line still racing east, spanning from one border to another. It's not that often you'll see a squall line with that far a reach.
Tomorrow may be a Critical Storm Action Day. It will certainly be a Storm Action Day.
Andrew
No comments:
Post a Comment