Shown above is a long range probability model for tropical cyclone formation from Paul Roundy. The top image shows general probabilities of formation, while the bottom image displays anomalies of tropical cyclone formation probabilities. Recently, this long range model has been hinting at some long range development west of the Mexican coast, but it is only as of May 5th that the model has upped the ante and added enhanced probabilities of development in those waters.
It's looking like we will see the development of a Phase 1 Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave towards the first week of June. As is shown above, the eight phases of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and occurrences of tropical cyclone development in each phase in the month of June are shown. If we look in the top-left panel, which shows tropical cyclone development in MJO Phase 1, we see a solid presence of cyclone development in the waters to the west of Mexico. What this means is that we very well could be seeing this long range projection of enhanced development potential in the Eastern Pacific verify- in the form of tropical cyclone development.
Exciting things are happening, folks!
Andrew
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