Tropical Development Likely in Late June-Early July; Gulf Coast Threatened

I believe tropical development is now likely in the western Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico in late June and early July. If development is to occur, the potential landfall zone would extend from the Florida Panhandle into Mexico. Houston, TX and New Orleans, LA would be affected.

As we move into the last week of June and early July, a massive high pressure system should overtake much of the United States in a formation referred to as the 'Death Ridge'. The term means how the high pressure system overtakes quite literally the entire nation and should extend into Canada. Unfortunately, this high pressure system brings up some intense heat from Mexico and the Southern Plains that can catch some people off-guard in northern parts of the nation and can lead to heat exhaustion and heat stroke.

The massive Death Ridge can lead to enhanced chances of tropical cyclone formation in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. With tropical convection moving into a favorable area of the Gulf of Mexico (called the Madden-Julian Oscillation) in this timeframe, I find it likely that, should development occur, strengthening into a tropical storm and possibly a hurricane would occur and find its way into the red shaded areas of the Gulf Coast.

Andrew