I believe we are likely to see tropical development in the Caribbean and/or Gulf of Mexico in the first 7 days of July. This comes as the atmosphere primes itself for a very tropically-conducive upper air pattern in these same regions.
The latest GFS model had a substantial tropical cyclone present in the Gulf of Mexico on July 1st, with landfall occurring in western Louisiana the morning of July 2nd. Pressure readings would drop below 1000 millibars in the open waters before rising as landfall occurs, as shown in the image above.
I'm really pushing for the likelihood of development in the Gulf of Mexico and/or Caribbean because the atmosphere is going to be truly primed for tropical cyclone formation to start the month of July. Global models are now agreeing on the development of a very strong Madden-Julian Oscillation event in the Eastern Pacific into the western Atlantic. This includes the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean. This strong MJO event means enhanced chances for tropical convection in these areas. If the tropical convection from this MJO event combines with the favorable mid-level atmospheric flow being sustained by the large high pressure system over the United States (which is likely to occur), tropical development would be expected.
At this point in time, I would anticipate development to occur either in the Western Caribbean or in the Gulf of Mexico; I don't find it too likely that we would see a cyclone make its way through the entire Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico when the most conducive conditions are closer to the US Mainland. Corpus Christi TX, Houston TX, New Orleans LA, Mobile AL and Pensacola FL could all be affected by a tropical cyclone forming in the Gulf of Mexico.
Andrew
I'm really pushing for the likelihood of development in the Gulf of Mexico and/or Caribbean because the atmosphere is going to be truly primed for tropical cyclone formation to start the month of July. Global models are now agreeing on the development of a very strong Madden-Julian Oscillation event in the Eastern Pacific into the western Atlantic. This includes the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean. This strong MJO event means enhanced chances for tropical convection in these areas. If the tropical convection from this MJO event combines with the favorable mid-level atmospheric flow being sustained by the large high pressure system over the United States (which is likely to occur), tropical development would be expected.
At this point in time, I would anticipate development to occur either in the Western Caribbean or in the Gulf of Mexico; I don't find it too likely that we would see a cyclone make its way through the entire Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico when the most conducive conditions are closer to the US Mainland. Corpus Christi TX, Houston TX, New Orleans LA, Mobile AL and Pensacola FL could all be affected by a tropical cyclone forming in the Gulf of Mexico.
Andrew
9 comments:
Hey Andrew, I know you may have been wondering, but here's my latest post where I talk even more about this upcoming hurricane season, Indian Ocean Dipole, Sunspot cycles, & even next winter. I also make mention of your preliminary winter weather outlook (which was by far one of the best posts you've ever made, in my opinion)
(link) http://weatheradvance.com/2013/06/20/stratospheric-warming-indian-ocean-dipole-implications-on-hurricane-season-next-winter-1996-now-a-hurricane-season-analog-cape-verde-storm-for-july/
I also don't mind your analysis posts making things much shorter & simpler to understand, keep these posts coming!
I'm running out of things to say, Eric- once again, another incredible post. Excellent data presented in a very official format. Very well done.
Also, if you don't mind, do you have the link(s) to those land falling hurricane charts in Niño and Nina years, and the ECMWF SST forecast in the first portion of your post? Congratulations on another amazing post, I hope to see many more in the future!
Thanks, hope that helps to clear up some things that have been on my mind for the last several weeks. Well, I did post the link to that scientific paper that talks about the hurricanes in relation to the sunspots
(link) http://diginole.lib.fsu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2036&context=etd
Here is the link to the sunspot monthly data since 1749 (link) http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/greenwch/spot_num.txt
MJO archive since 1989, towards the bottom of this page (link) http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/mjo.html
Still trying to find exactly where I found that ECMWF forecast, finding some other cool stuff along the way though, lol (link) http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/oras4/reanalysis/sections/xymaps/1m/http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/oras4/reanalysis/sections/xymaps/1m/
I checked, and you are required to have certain credentials when looking at that data (I certainly don't), however, I was able to find NINO 3.4 SST plumes. (That SST map I just did some other searching around the internet, just happened to find it). (link to SST plumes) http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/seasonal/forecast/seasonal_range_forecast/nino_plumes_public_s4!3.4!!plumes!/
Here's a paper that has all those neat charts with the la nina and ENSO neutral hurricane landfalling hurricanes on the east coast & Florida (the ones you see in my posts a lot), also has Florida vs East coast hurricane hit formations, and a mapr hsowing neutral & la nina hurricane formations per year. Also has a chart with Hurricane landfalls per year in ENSO el nino neutral, and la nina for the 1900-1988 period on the US east coast & Florida. This is probably what you were asking for as far as "landfalling charts" (link) http://coaps.fsu.edu/papers/regional_effects_hurricane_landfalls/
This site also has some interesting information regarding hurricanes & la nina vs el nino years, among other things (link) http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/globalimpact/TC/Atlantic/index.html
This site isn't bad either (link) http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~jcossuth/others/
Just came across this awesome scientific paper that describes the relationship between ENSO & US/Mexico landfalling storms and looks at the actual physical data and mechanisms involved, pretty cool.
(link) http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/JCLI3317.1
Also, I think you should be keeping an eye on that very strong mesoscale complex over northern Iowa & southeastern Wisconsin, it looks very suspicious to say the least, and if it doesn't weaken anytime soon, then we may have a problem on our hands as it pushes very fast to the south & east, I think the SPC should at the very least extend their slight risk into Illinois, Indiana, and Michigan. I know we should use the word very sparingly here, but if these storms hold on into the afternoon, we may have a "derecho" on our hands (still need to wait & see on that). I will say though, unlike the last storm system, which was a "derecho" by definition, although a weak one at that, this complex of thunderstorms has no support aloft and 500 millibar heights actually show ridging in these storms vicinity, suggesting that these storms are indeed self-sustaining, thus with afternoon heating, these storms could intensify. Just something to watch
Thanks much for all the links, I'll have a lot of data to look over this weekend. As for the bow segment, the 10z RAP appears to have a good handle on the 12z situation. That said, the segment begins to shrink and enter North central IL by 14z and dissipates at the 16z mark. I saw another model which had a small but very intense bow segment blast through Chicagoland last night, so I guess it's up in the air. Wouldn't be surprised to see it defy the RAP, that segment is strong and keeps popping more cells immediately ahead of it as the segment pushes SE.
I agree, the MJO is putting the icing on the cake for tropical development. The long range is already showing the development.
I do want to say this, something I have noticed in the last few days, I have noticed that this pattern we are following this hurricane season is closely resembling 2005. Remember how Andrea came out the deep tropics in June & moved northeastward into the eastern Gulf, striking Florida, Arlene in June 2005 took a very similar track. Then tropical storm Bret which went into the Bay of Campeche sounds a lot like tropical storm Barry that just formed. Now of course with the GFS predicting a system into the central Gulf (which is an area I highlighted in my official hurricane season prediction map from all the way back in April), this sounds a lot like Hurricane Cindy in July 2005. If history serves us right, along with what I am predicting for a potential long track Cape Verde storm, I know it may seem like a longshot, but in July we could potentially deal with something along the lines of a Hurricane Emily or Dennis. Scary similarities for sure, but we shall see what happens.
Post a Comment