Preword: This post contains information that some may find controversial. I publish this only to show the results of a study that some may find interesting, and I DO NOT intend to conclude that this is the future of earthquake prediction. Use this post and its data with extreme caution.
For decades, there has been a struggle among geologists and meteorologists to find a cause for earthquakes that can range from a minor nuisance to lethal earth-shakers. Because of the closeness in the fields of geology and meteorology, there has been much discussion about a possible correlation between the two, possibly a correlation that could help predict earthquakes in advance. Based on a study I conducted, I believe I may have found a tool that could HELP (not completely predict) forecast the occurrence of an earthquake.
This study was composed of a total 43 'cases', in which 43 different earthquake events on the US Mainland were analyzed in magnitude, date and location. The ongoing weather situation at that time was then analyzed. 10 of these 43 cases will be shown below, and a full list of statistics on all 43 cases will then be illustrated. The image associated with each case shows vorticity values at the 500 millibar level.
CASE #1 - Central Oklahoma, 11/06/11 - 5.6 M.
A 5.6 magnitude earthquake struck northeast Ohio at approximately 3:56 UTC. The vorticity map shown above is from 3:00 UTC. As is shown, high positive vorticity values were approaching the Oklahoma area at the time of the observed earthquake, with two areas of strong low pressure seen in the central and northern Plains in association with this area of high vorticity.
CASE #2 - Arkansas, 2/28/11 - 4.7 M.
A 4.7 magnitude earthquake struck Arkansas at approximately 5:01 UTC. This map shown above is from 6:00 UTC. At the time of the earthquake, significant positive vorticity values were observed approaching the state of Arkansas from northern Texas and western Oklahoma.
CASE #3 - Northern California, 1/10/11 - 6.5 M.
A 6.5 magnitude earthquake struck the waters just a few miles offshore northern California at approximately 00:27 UTC. This vorticity map shown above is from 00:00 UTC. As is shown above, a lobe of elevated vorticity is shown offshore the west coast of Colorado, with a small area of higher vorticity immediately close to the northern California coast where the earthquake occurred. In similar stature to the previous two cases, high positive vorticity values were observed in the immediate vicinity of this earthquake.
CASE #4 - Northwest Colorado, 8/18/09 - 3.7 M.
A 3.7 magnitude earthquake struck northwest Colorado at approximately 2:50 UTC. The vorticity map above is from 3:00 UTC. As is shown above, a compact area of elevated vorticity was moving towards the area of the earthquake when the earthquake struck.
CASE #5 - Western California, 4/30/09 - 3.5 M.
A 3.5 magnitude earthquake struck west-central California at 22:51 UTC. This map is from 21:00 UTC. At the time the earthquake struck, a localized area of negative vorticity values was observed over the area where this earthquake occurred. Only one other case had an area of negative vorticity present at the time of an earthquake's occurrence.
CASE #6 - Western California, 3/08/09 - 3.5 M.
A 3.5 magnitude earthquake struck the San Francisco Bay Area at approximately 14:47 UTC. This vorticity map is from 15:00 UTC. As is shown above, an area of elevated vorticity was observed over the site of the earthquake, with an area of opposing negative vorticity close behind the positive vorticity swath.
CASE #7 - Northern New Jersey, 2/3/09 - 3.0 M.
A 3.0 magnitude earthquake struck northern New Jersey at approximately 3:34 UTC. The vorticity map above is from 3:00 UTC. As the map shows, a very large area of high vorticity values was observed approaching New Jersey at the time of the earthquake. Additionally, a lobe of increasingly-prevalent positive vorticity was seen stretching from North Carolina into Virginia that moved into the New Jersey area just hours after the earthquake struck.
CASE #8 - Southwest California, 1/9/09 - 4.5 M.
A 4.5 magnitude earthquake struck the Greater Los Angeles area at approximately 3:50 UTC. This vorticity map is from 3:00 UTC. As is shown above, an area of high positive vorticity was seen moving towards the Los Angeles area, with a large swath of negative vorticity values closely in pursuit. This reinforces the theory of this study that areas of anomalous vorticity (typically positive vorticity) may be the cause behind some earthquakes.
CASE #9 - North California, 4/30/08 - 5.4 M.
A 5.4 magnitude earthquake struck northern California at approximately 3:03 UTC. This vorticity map is from 3:00 UTC. As is shown above, a large area of positive vorticity is seen over the area where the earthquake occurred.
CASE #10 - Illinois, 4/18/08 - 5.4 M.
A 5.4 magnitude earthquake struck southern Illinois at approximately 9:37 UTC. The above vorticity map is from 9:00 UTC. At the time of the earthquake, a significant area of positive vorticity was moving towards the site of the earthquake, with a belt of large negative vorticity values west of a line of weaker positive vorticity anomalies. This continues the idea that anomalous vorticity values may be the cause of some earthquakes.
The following statistics cover all 43 cases, including the 10 listed above. For the statistics listing 'Supports study' or 'Does not support study', the theory is that anomalous vorticity values may be the cause of some earthquakes. This theory was then matched against 43 of the most recent US Mainland earthquakes.
26 out of the 43 cases support the study.
17 out of the 43 cases do not support the study.
60% of all cases do support the study, while 40% do not.
17 of the 43 cases originated in California.
29 of the 43 cases originated from mountainous terrain.
14 of the 43 cases originated from non-mountainous terrain.
Summary
More than half of the cases in this study favor the proposition that anomalous vorticity values either over or in the immediate vicinity of the earthquake may be the cause behind this earthquake. While the percentages of supporting the study/not supporting the study are still rather even (60% favor to 40% non-favor), this could be the first evidence that indicates weather may be a factor in some earthquakes.
For decades, there has been a struggle among geologists and meteorologists to find a cause for earthquakes that can range from a minor nuisance to lethal earth-shakers. Because of the closeness in the fields of geology and meteorology, there has been much discussion about a possible correlation between the two, possibly a correlation that could help predict earthquakes in advance. Based on a study I conducted, I believe I may have found a tool that could HELP (not completely predict) forecast the occurrence of an earthquake.
This study was composed of a total 43 'cases', in which 43 different earthquake events on the US Mainland were analyzed in magnitude, date and location. The ongoing weather situation at that time was then analyzed. 10 of these 43 cases will be shown below, and a full list of statistics on all 43 cases will then be illustrated. The image associated with each case shows vorticity values at the 500 millibar level.
CASE #1 - Central Oklahoma, 11/06/11 - 5.6 M.
A 5.6 magnitude earthquake struck northeast Ohio at approximately 3:56 UTC. The vorticity map shown above is from 3:00 UTC. As is shown, high positive vorticity values were approaching the Oklahoma area at the time of the observed earthquake, with two areas of strong low pressure seen in the central and northern Plains in association with this area of high vorticity.
CASE #2 - Arkansas, 2/28/11 - 4.7 M.
CASE #3 - Northern California, 1/10/11 - 6.5 M.
A 6.5 magnitude earthquake struck the waters just a few miles offshore northern California at approximately 00:27 UTC. This vorticity map shown above is from 00:00 UTC. As is shown above, a lobe of elevated vorticity is shown offshore the west coast of Colorado, with a small area of higher vorticity immediately close to the northern California coast where the earthquake occurred. In similar stature to the previous two cases, high positive vorticity values were observed in the immediate vicinity of this earthquake.
CASE #4 - Northwest Colorado, 8/18/09 - 3.7 M.
CASE #5 - Western California, 4/30/09 - 3.5 M.
CASE #6 - Western California, 3/08/09 - 3.5 M.
CASE #7 - Northern New Jersey, 2/3/09 - 3.0 M.
CASE #8 - Southwest California, 1/9/09 - 4.5 M.
CASE #9 - North California, 4/30/08 - 5.4 M.
CASE #10 - Illinois, 4/18/08 - 5.4 M.
The following statistics cover all 43 cases, including the 10 listed above. For the statistics listing 'Supports study' or 'Does not support study', the theory is that anomalous vorticity values may be the cause of some earthquakes. This theory was then matched against 43 of the most recent US Mainland earthquakes.
26 out of the 43 cases support the study.
17 out of the 43 cases do not support the study.
60% of all cases do support the study, while 40% do not.
17 of the 43 cases originated in California.
29 of the 43 cases originated from mountainous terrain.
14 of the 43 cases originated from non-mountainous terrain.
Summary
More than half of the cases in this study favor the proposition that anomalous vorticity values either over or in the immediate vicinity of the earthquake may be the cause behind this earthquake. While the percentages of supporting the study/not supporting the study are still rather even (60% favor to 40% non-favor), this could be the first evidence that indicates weather may be a factor in some earthquakes.
1 comment:
Andrew, interesting you should talk about earthquakes & its relation to weather, I'm doing my own study at the moment & I will make a post soon (in that same post I'll talk about the Nightmares of 1893 & 193), but I'll talk about how earthquakes seem to arise in periods of cold PDO & warm AMO & what's interesting is some of the world's largest earthquakes, like the #1 strongest quake, the Chilean earthquake of 1960 occurred the same year as hurricane Donna, which smashed the entire eastern seaboard. Some more recent examples like the Sumatra earthquake of 2004 (perhaps could have been a warning of the Pacific about to enter its cold state? and of course we can't forget about the 2011 Japan earthquake that occurred the same year as hurricane Irene. The 1890s, which had a cold PDO/warm AMO had a lot of strong earthquakes globally, while at the same time having east coast hurricanes like the 1950s & recent years. I think it makes a lot of sense to look at the Pacific Decadal Oscillation as the Pacific plate is surrounded by the "Ring of Fire" which accounts for greater than 90% of the earth's earthquake activity & studying changes in the temperature of the Pacific could unlock secrets to connections in the PDO & earthquakes, & by studying the PDO's relationship to the AMO which can affect the overall state of the Pacific to cool or warm even during overall large phases of warm or cold PDO. Perhaps it makes sense now as to why there are those who like to think there's a connections between solar cycles & earthquakes, as although the connection may not be direct, knowing solar cycles (TSI in particular) closely follow AMO & AMO has large influence on PDO, which in turn determines the overall state of the Pacific laying above the Pacific plate that is linked to the vast majority of earth's quakes. These are just some of my thoughts on this, I'd say if anything earthquakes are linked to cold PDO-warm AMO cycles & oddly enough, East Coast hurricanes, interesting, what do you think about this?
Post a Comment