The prospects of an early winter arriving in the United States are rising, as model guidance and observed temperatures in the Arctic support a quick start to the season.
Model guidance is projecting snow cover to begin building over Canada in just several days, and intensifying towards the US/Canada border by the final days of September. Three of the four CFS ensemble members project snow cover extending across much of Canada by the end of September, but all four members are in agreement that snow cover will be building across Canada in just a week or two, and beginning its advance towards the United States by September
Aiding in prospects for an early winter is the continued observance of below normal temperatures in the high Arctic region. As the graph shows, observed temperatures have been strikingly below normal for several months now, and have recently dropped below the freezing level. If below freezing temperatures can be maintained, and the general below-normal temperature trend holds going through fall, I do not see why scenarios like an early snow pack building over Canada and Siberia are unfounded, and thus the idea of an early start to winter over the US is brought to light.
Just because this winter may start rather early does not mean the winter as a whole will be intense; recall the October snowstorm that hammered the Northeast just a couple of years ago, but then saw the rest of winter with below normal snow and above normal temperatures.
Andrew
Just because this winter may start rather early does not mean the winter as a whole will be intense; recall the October snowstorm that hammered the Northeast just a couple of years ago, but then saw the rest of winter with below normal snow and above normal temperatures.
Andrew
10 comments:
This morning in Ohio, I could see my breath, and highs were in the upper 60s. Honestly, I do not find your forecast very far off. However, I would like to mention the snow in Ohio in some of these models. I know these are very long-range, but flurries in Spetember would be very unusual. How confident are you with these forecasts. I don't expect snow, by the way.
Anonymous: The snow in the lower 48 will not verify- the point here is that all ensemble models are anticipating a building snow cover over Canada that may then kick start an early winter.
I'm not sure who all was able to read my last posting on the "Old Wives Tales" but I meant to call it "Folklore" The folks back then had nothing else to use but animals & such to tell what the weather was going to do! They did not have you Andrew as we do! & I kinda knew by the walnuts falling, spider webs thick & huge & this early, and seeing woolly worms this early being as fuzzy & black as they are from reading on the old folklore tales of how to know if your having a early, cold, snowy, crappy, winter! Just the thought of it makes me want to start my Prozac diet early this year. & a light box, need to invest in that to! Thank you Andrew for your updates I really appreciate them! I will be looking forward to your preliminary forecast the end of August! Who knows...maybe we'll get lucky & winter will be canceled! Oh.. yea you know I'm preying for that one!
bree
Does an earlier winter indicate a colder winter, or is there no corelation?
Hey it's dean again, just wondering what you are predicting for central ohio (newark, ohio) because yesterday it was 48 degrees and high was 62. What does this mean to you? Will we get an early winter in central ohio? Thanks and by the way I am a very big snow fan so you will be seeing me on your winter forecasts a lot. Appreciate your work.
Do you think that Nashville TN will see any snow this winter season?
never never in a thousand years has my area had 0.1 inches of snow in late september to early october. In fact, it hasn't even snowed during that time. You can never have 100% belief that a long range model is right. This far out it can always turn out different.
Anonymous at 1:08: There is no correlation I know of.
Dean: It doesn't mean that much; trying to determine exact areas that may receive an early winter would not be too accurate.
Anonymous at 1:05: Most likely.
Anonymous at 8:51: It is a given that snow will not fall in the US that early- we have clarified that it is wrong. I'm only focusing on the Canadian snow pack in this post.
If you confirm that the model is wrong about snow in the lower 48, then you confirm the amount of snowpack in Canada is wrong also!
That is incorrect. The Lower 48 snow cover is going to be wrong. However, it is possible the Canadian snow cover forecast does verify.
Post a Comment