In recent days, an intense layer of dry air has shifted west from Northern Africa, resulting in not only stunning satellite images, but also a decreased chance for tropical development in the eastern Atlantic and for tropical waves coming off of Africa. I anticipate that we should see this outbreak of dry air dissipating over the next week or two, which should allow tropical waves over Africa a better chance for tropical development.
Model guidance indicates chances of tropical development will increase after the 5 day mark from today, which is roughly the time we will see the dry air moving further through the Atlantic and dissipating in the process.
Andrew
2 comments:
Hi Andrew, I figured you would like to see this, here's my newest post & yes, it's a very long post as usual, full of very good information & analysis.
http://weatheradvance.com/2013/08/03/remembering-the-east-coast-nightmare-of-1938-hurricane-season-ramblings-tidbits-preliminary-winter-thoughts/
Excellent read, Eric, as always. Your analog package is definitely doing well, and hopefully it works out favorably come winter. I did an analysis of roughly a dozen variables on my two winter analog years (1951-1952 and 1962-1963), and found that the latter year clearly outperformed the 1951-1952 winter in that analysis. The fact that 62-63 is a front runner is good- that winter featured a frigid Great Lakes/Midwest and a stratosphere with a very suppressed polar vortex. On the other hand, though, both of my analog years had a negative QBO during the winter (other than that QBO difference, the 62-63 analog had a perfect record for matching up with this summer's current conditions on those dozen variables).
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