November 16-20 Potential Cold Shot & Winter Storm

There is a possibility of a cold weather event and winter storm in during the November 16-20 timeframe.

Shown above is the 12z GFS projection of 500 millibar height anomalies across the North Pacific. If you look over by Japan, you will see a swath of negative height anomalies over that area. This is suggestive of a storm system in the area. As some of you may have seen on this blog and elsewhere, it has been discovered that troughing in East Asia tends to lead to a storm system and associated cold weather event in the East US roughly 6-10 days later, per Joe Renken. The image above is valid for November 10th, meaning we are looking at the November 16-20 timeframe for a potential cold weather event and winter storm.

As of now, there is no way to determine which areas may be hit by the potential storm system, and who may be affected by the cold weather. Per the weather pattern in the days leading up to the aforementioned timeframe of interest, I currently see the Plains at the best risk of this winter storm, mainly due to a rather strong high pressure system in the East US. However, as future model runs come out, the situation is bound to change. In the same sense, the potential areas affected are bound to change. This is a very fluid situation, and asking if your area may be affected will not yield any accurate answers, unfortunately.

Andrew