It appears the Central and Eastern US may see a wintry storm system push through around an October 11th to 15th timeframe.
The image above shows the 500mb height anomaly forecast from the GFS model, valid on October 5th. Blues on this graphic indicate negative height anomalies, which typically bring about cold and stormy conditions. Oranges and reds depict warmth and generally tranquil conditions.
On the image above, we see a typhoon pushing north into the nation of Japan on October 5th, appearing to just miss a merge with the trough to the west of the country. This typhoon looks to hit Japan head-on from this forecast image.
This all plays into our winter storm threat using the concept that weather phenomena that occurs in Japan is reciprocated 6-10 days later in North America / after it happens in Japan. For example, this typhoon hitting Japan looks to induce a period of cold and stormy weather in the US 6-10 days after it his Japan, which puts us on track for a storm system in the US around an October 11th-15th time period.
Model guidance is already showing signs of this storm hitting the United States. This GFS model forecast, made at the same time as the image at the top of this post, shows precipitation on the morning of October 12th, along with 1000-500mb thickness values. A rule of thumb is that values below 540 on the image above indicate where snow (or other wintry precipitation) is possible. The GFS model shows sub-540 values spread across the Midwest and Great Lakes, meaning we could see some wintry precipitation in those areas.
Surface temperatures aren't conducive for snowfall, but I wouldn't be surprised for some parts of the Central and East US to see wintry weather, possibly including snowfall in the coldest area, when this storm threat rolls around during the October 11-15 period.
Andrew
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| Tropical Tidbits |
On the image above, we see a typhoon pushing north into the nation of Japan on October 5th, appearing to just miss a merge with the trough to the west of the country. This typhoon looks to hit Japan head-on from this forecast image.
This all plays into our winter storm threat using the concept that weather phenomena that occurs in Japan is reciprocated 6-10 days later in North America / after it happens in Japan. For example, this typhoon hitting Japan looks to induce a period of cold and stormy weather in the US 6-10 days after it his Japan, which puts us on track for a storm system in the US around an October 11th-15th time period.
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| Instant Weather Maps |
Surface temperatures aren't conducive for snowfall, but I wouldn't be surprised for some parts of the Central and East US to see wintry weather, possibly including snowfall in the coldest area, when this storm threat rolls around during the October 11-15 period.
Andrew
9 comments:
How much snow? Like a flurry or an inch or more?
Andrew,
Thanks for the data. Mpls, Mn long term forecast is for lows of 36 f for that time frame.
We will probably see snowfall. I'm ready, as the snowblower just got fixed.
Thanks
Mark - Mpls,MN
Does this include Ohio? If so, if we are cold enough could we see some accumulation?
Accumulation from this event is expected to be insignificant; falling snowflakes and only a dusting should be the maximum given current projected temperature profiles.
How about new hampsire ?
I am more interested in how this storm and any others that pop up in October will come into play in the LRC in 40 t0 60 days.....I have never put much stock in the LRC. I am keeping a record for the month of October and I really want to see if there is anything to it.......
Give your head a shake dude. There's no way you should be calling this a winter storm. Your so called dusting is no where near what qualifies a winter storm. Care to publish and comment or will you censor this? Thank you.
Denise
Denise: Forgiving your misplaced accusation of censorship, there is no "qualifying" of a winter storm. Post titles here at The Weather Centre change seasonally- a winter storm potential is discussed in September for an inch or two, while the same title is referred to storms with 6"+ in the heart of winter.
If you'd like to get technical about it, considering wintry precipitation is a possibility, this is indeed a 'winter storm', despite its meager wintry state.
Lastly, if you'd like to discuss this further, I'd ask that you please remove the sarcastic components from future comments. It's difficult to maintain a conversation with such diction, especially when I'm trying at an honest level to assess your thoughts and respond in the most accurate way possible.
Andrew
Before coming here, I had heard about the LRC, but never researched it. So I just never gave it much credit or merit and I just sort of blew it off. As I have read and studied Andrews post about it I have become more interested in it, So I will withhold Judgment until data proves it wrong.........or right!
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