2014-2015 Personalized Winter Forecasts: 1:30 PM Post

Magalia, CA
Temperature: Above Normal
Precipitation: Below Normal
Snowfall: Below Normal

Johnson City, TN
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Below Normal
Snowfall: Below Normal

Virginia Beach, VA
Temperature: Around Normal
Precipitation: Around Normal
Snowfall: Around Normal

San Clemente, CA
Temperature: Above Normal
Precipitation: Below Normal
Snowfall: Below Normal

Lompoc, CA
Temperature: Above Normal
Precipitation: Below Normal
Snowfall: Below Normal

Middletown, OH
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Around Normal
Snowfall: Around Normal

Los Angeles, CA
Temperature: Above Normal
Precipitation: Below Normal
Snowfall: Below Normal

Sea Bright, NJ
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Around Normal
Snowfall: Around Normal

Wheeling, WV
Temperature: Around Normal
Precipitation: Around Normal
Snowfall: Around Normal

Duluth, MN
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Around Normal
Snowfall: Above Normal

2014-2015 Personalized Winter Forecasts: 1:25 PM Post

Savannah, GA
Temperature: Around Normal
Precipitation: Around Normal
Snowfall: N/A

Lilburn, GA
Temperature: Around Normal
Precipitation: Around Normal
Snowfall: N/A

Suwanee, GA
Temperature: Around Normal
Precipitation: Around Normal
Snowfall: N/A

Wilmington, NC
Temperature: Around Normal
Precipitation: Around Normal
Snowfall: Around Normal

Loganville, GA
Temperature: Around Normal
Precipitation: Around Normal
Snowfall: N/A

Roswell, GA
Temperature: Around Normal
Precipitation: Around Normal
Snowfall: N/A

Fairfield, ME
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Around Normal
Snowfall: Around Normal

Nashville, TN
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Below Normal
Snowfall: Below Normal

Wilton, CT
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Around Normal
Snowfall: Around Normal

El Paso, TX
Temperature: Around Normal
Precipitation: Around Normal
Snowfall: Around Normal

2014-2015 Personalized Winter Forecasts: 1:20 PM Post

Madison, WI
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Above Normal
Snowfall: Above Normal

Dearborn, MI
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Above Normal
Snowfall: Above Normal

Port Huron, MI
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Around Normal
Snowfall: Above Normal

Esconidido, CA
Temperature: Above Normal
Precipitation: Below Normal
Snowfall: Below Normal

New Buffalo, MI
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Above Normal
Snowfall: Above Normal

Greenwich, CT
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Around Normal
Snowfall: Around Normal

Powell, OH
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Around Normal
Snowfall: Around Normal

Providence, RI
Temperature: Around Normal
Precipitation: Around Normal
Snowfall: Below Normal

Spruce Pine, NC
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Around Normal
Snowfall: Around Normal

Plainfield, CT
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Around Normal
Snowfall: Around Normal

2014-2015 Personalized Winter Forecasts: 1:15 PM Post

Man, WV
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Around Normal
Snowfall: Around Normal

South Bend, IN
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Around Normal
Snowfall: Below Normal

Carrollton, GA
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Around Normal
Snowfall: N/A

Battle Creek, MI
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Above Normal
Snowfall: Above Normal

Monroe, MI
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Above Normal
Snowfall: Above Normal

Walnutport, PA
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Around Normal
Snowfall: Around Normal

Bluepoint, NY
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Around Normal
Snowfall: Around Normal

Borculo, MI
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Above Normal
Snowfall: Above Normal

Wyoming, MI
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Above Normal
Snowfall: Above Normal

Marquette, WI
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Above Normal
Snowfall: Above Normal

2014-2015 Personalized Winter Forecasts: 1:10 PM Post

East Peoria, IL
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Around Normal
Snowfall: Around Normal

Venice, FL
Temperature: Above Normal
Precipitation: Above Normal
Snowfall: N/A

Vinita, OK
Temperature: Around Normal
Precipitation: Around Normal
Snowfall: Around Normal

Erin, TN
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Below Normal
Snowfall: Below Normal

Chesterfield Township, MI
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Above Normal
Snowfall: Above Normal

Rochester Hills, MI
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Above Norma
Snowfall: Above Normal

Waco, TX
Temperature: Around Normal
Precipitation: Around Normal
Snowfall: Around Normal

Waterville, OH
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Around Normal
Snowfall: Around Normal

Highland Lakes, NJ
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Around Normal
Snowfall: Around Normal

2014-2015 Personalized Winter Forecasts: 1:05 PM Post

Sylvania, OH
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Below Normal
Snowfall: Below Normal

Greenville, SC
Temperature: Around Normal
Precipitation: Around Normal
Snowfall: Below Normal

Dekalb, MO
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Below Normal
Snowfall: Below Normal

Harkers Island, NC
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Around Normal
Snowfall: Around Normal

Tulsa, OK
Temperature: Around Normal
Precipitation: Around Normal
Snowfall: Around Normal

Grand Rapids, MI
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Above Normal
Snowfall: Above Normal

Arlington, VA
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Around Normal
Snowfall: Around Normal

Tipton, MI
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Above Normal
Snowfall: Above Normal

Ardmore, OK
Temperature: Around Normal
Precipitation: Around Normal
Snowfall: Around Normal

Minneapolis, MN
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Around Normal
Snowfall: Around Normal

2014-2015 Personalized Winter Forecasts: 1:00 PM Post

Camdenton, MO
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Below Normal
Snowfall: Below Normal

Frankfort, IL
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Around Normal
Snowfall: Around Normal

Kirkwood, CA
Temperature: Above Normal
Precipitation: Below Normal
Snowfall: Below Normal

Lawrenceburg, TN
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Below Normal
Snowfall: Below Normal

Columbia, SC
Temperature: Around Normal
Precipitation: Around Normal
Snowfall: Below Normal

Whitefish, MT
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Below Normal
Snowfall: Below Normal

Starkville, MS
Temperature: Around Normal
Precipitation: Above Normal
Snowfall: N/A

Benzonia, MI
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Above Normal
Snowfall: Above Normal

Baltimore, MD
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Around Normal
Snowfall: Around Normal

St. Louis, MO
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Below Normal
Snowfall: Below Normal

2014-2015 Personalized Winter Forecasts: 12:55 PM Post

Alberton, PE, Canada
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Around Normal
Snowfall: Around Normal

Kankakee, IL
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Around Normal
Snowfall: Around Normal

Palos Hills, IL
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Around Normal
Snowfall: Around Normal

Philadelphia, PA
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Around Normal
Snowfall: Around Normal

Monroe, WI
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Above Normal
Snowfall: Above Normal

Essex, MD
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Around Normal
Snowfall: Around Normal

Fort Wayne, IN
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Below Normal
Snowfall: Below Normal

Dahlonega, GA
Temperature: Around Normal
Precipitation: Above Normal
Snowfall: Below Normal

Langhorne, PA
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Around Normal
Snowfall: Around Normal

Cincinnati, OH
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Below Normal
Snowfall: Around Normal

2014-2015 Personalized Winter Forecasts: 12:50 PM Post

Leamington, Ontario, Canada
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Above Normal
Snowfall: Above Normal

Redford, MI
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Above Normal
Snowfall: Above Normal

Guttenberg, IA
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Around Normal
Snowfall: Slightly Above Normal

Milan, TN
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Below Normal
Snowfall: Below Normal

Carl Junction, MO
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Below Normal
Snowfall: Below Normal

Fremont, OH
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Below Normal
Snowfall: Below Normal

Annandale, VA
Temperature: Around Normal
Precipitation: Around Normal
Snowfall: Below Normal

Suderland, VT
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Around Normal
Snowfall: Above Normal

Saginaw, MI
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Above Normal
Snowfall: Above Normal

Wichita, KS
Temperature: Around Normal
Precipitation: Around Normal
Snowfall: Around Normal

2014-2015 Personalized Winter Forecasts: 12:45 PM Post

Iowa City, IA
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Around Average
Snowfall: Slightly Above Normal

Owasso, OK
Temperature: Around Average
Precipitation: Below Normal
Snowfall: Around Normal

Amarillo, TX
Temperature: Around Normal
Precipitation: Above Normal
Snowfall: Above Normal

Lincolnton, NC
Temperature: Slightly Below Normal
Precipitation: Around Normal
Snowfall: Around Normal

Knoxville, TN
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Below Normal
Snowfall: Around Normal

Kalamazoo, MI
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Above Normal
Snowfall: Above Normal

Brownsburg, IN
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Below Normal
Snowfall: Below Normal

Moose Jaw, Saskatchewan, Canada
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Around Normal
Snowfall: Around Normal

Napoleon, OH
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Around Normal
Snowfall: Below Normal

Angola, IN
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Below Normal
Snowfall: Below Normal

2014-2015 Personalized Winter Forecasts: 12:40 PM Post

Penns Grove, NJ
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Average
Snowfall: Average

Hollywood, MD
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Average
Snowfall: Average

Flint, MI
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Above Normal
Snowfall: Above Normal

Omaha, NE
Temperature: Average
Precipitation: Average
Snowfall: Around Average

Winfield, NY
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Average
Snowfall: Around Average

Elizabeth City, NC
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Around Average
Snowfall: Average

Robbinsdale, MN
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Around Average
Snowfall: Above Average

Hastings, MI
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Above Normal
Snowfall: Above Normal

Kansas City, MO
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Below Normal
Snowfall: Normal

Bay City, MI
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Above Normal
Snowfall: Above Normal

2014-2015 Personalized Winter Forecasts: 12:35 PM Post

Kokomo, IN
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Around Average
Snowfall: Around Average

Mountain, WI
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Above Normal
Snowfall: Above Normal

Elkhart, IN
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Average
Snowfall: Average

Cherry Valley, IL
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Around Average
Snowfall: Around Average

Dwight, IL
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Around Average
Snowfall: Average

Chesterton, IN
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Below Normal
Snowfall: Below Normal

Myrtle Beach, SC
Temperature: Around Average
Precipitation: Around Average
Snowfall: N/A

Johnson City, NY
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Around Average
Snowfall: Average

Ypsilanti, MI
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Above Average
Snowfall: Above Average

Inman, SC
Temperature: Around Average
Precipitation: Average
Snowfall: N/A

2014-2015 Personalized Winter Forecasts: 12:30 PM Post

Moline, IL
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Around Average
Snowfall: Around Average

Middle Village, NY
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Around Average
Snowfall: Around Average

Dallas, TX
Temperature: Average
Precipitation: Average
Snowfall: N/A

Kenilworth, NJ
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Around Average
Snowfall: Slightly Above Average

Vernon, CT
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Average
Snowfall: Average

Fredericksburg, VA
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Average
Snowfall: Slightly Above Average

Hillsboro, MO
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Below Normal
Snowfall: Normal

Hot Springs National Park, AR
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Below Normal
Snowfall: Around Average

Denver, CO
Temperature: Above Normal
Precipitation: Around Average
Snowfall: Around Average

Warren, OH
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Around Average
Snowfall: Around Average

2014-2015 Personalized Winter Forecasts: 12:25 PM Post

Urbana, IL
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Below Normal
Snowfall: Below Normal

Mokena, IL
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Around Average
Snowfall: Around Average

Defiance, OH
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Slightly Below Normal
Snowfall: Slightly Below Normal

Kirksville, MO
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Below Normal
Snowfall: Below Normal

Fort Leavenworth, KS
Temperature: Around Average
Precipitation: Around Average
Snowfall: Around Average

Littleton, NH
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Around Average
Snowfall: Around Average

Ann Arbor, MI
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Slightly Above Normal
Snowfall: Slightly Above Normal

Louisville, KY
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Below Normal
Snowfall: Below Normal

Woodbridge, VA
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Around Average
Snowfall: Around Average

Collingwood, ON, Canada
Temperature: Well Below Normal
Precipitation: Around Average
Snowfall: Slightly Above Normal

2014-2015 Personalized Winter Forecasts: 12:20 PM Post

Lansing, MI
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Slightly Above Normal
Snowfall: Slightly Above Normal

Morganton, NC
Temperature: Slightly Below Normal
Precipitation: Slightly Above Normal
Snowfall: Slightly Above Normal

Oxford, MI
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Slightly Above Average
Snowfall: Slightly Above Average

Brevard, NC
Temperature: Slightly Below Normal
Precipitation: Above Normal
Snowfall: N/A

Dekalb, IL
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Around Average
Snowfall: Slightly Above Average

Greencastle, PA
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Around Average
Snowfall: Slightly Above Average

Erial, NJ
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Around Average
Snowfall: Around Average

Logansport, IN
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Around Average
Snowfall: Slightly Below Normal

Waynesboro, PA
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Around Average
Snowfall: Around Average

Boone, NC
Temperature: Slightly Below Normal
Precipitation: Slightly Above Average
Snowfall: N/A

2014-2015 Personalized Winter Forecasts: 12:15 PM Post

Anson, TX
Temperature: Around Average
Precipitation: Around Average
Snowfall: N/A

Rosemount, MN
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Slightly Above Normal
Snowfall: Above Normal

Alexandria, VA
Temperature: Slightly Below Normal
Precipitation: Slightly Above Average
Snowfall: Around Average

Columbus, OH
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Slightly Below Normal
Snowfall: Below Normal

Huntsville, AL
Temperature: Around Average
Precipitation: Slightly Below Normal
Snowfall: N/A

Columbus, GA
Temperature: Around Average
Precipitation: Slightly Below Normal
Snowfall: N/A

Warren, MI
Temperature: Well Below Normal
Precipitation: Slightly Above Normal
Snowfall: Above Normal

West Salem, WI
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Slightly Above Normal
Snowfall: Above Normal

Winston Salem, NC
Temperature: Around Average
Precipitation: Slightly Above Average
Snowfall: Slightly Above Average

Vancouver, BC, Canada
Temperature: Above Average
Precipitation: Below Average
Snowfall: Below Average

2014-2015 Personalized Winter Forecasts: 12:10 PM Post

Jackson, TN
Temperature: Slightly Below Normal
Precipitation: Below Normal
Snowfall: Below Normal

Champlin, MN
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Around Average
Snowfall: Above Average

McHenry, IL
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Around Average
Snowfall: Slightly Above Normal

Bell Buckle, TN
Temperature: Slightly Below Normal
Precipitation: Below Normal
Snowfall: Below Normal

Greater Chicago, IL
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Around Average
Snowfall: Slightly Above Average

Albany, NY
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Slightly Above Average
Snowfall: Around Average

Sturgeon Bay, WI
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Slightly Above Normal
Snowfall: Above Normal

Portland, OR
Temperature: Above Normal
Precipitation: Below Normal
Snowfall: Below Normal

Wayne, NJ
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Slightly Above Normal
Snowfall: Around Average

Halethorpe, MD
Temperature: Slightly Below Normal
Precipitation: Around Average
Snowfall: Slightly Above Average

2014-2015 Personalized Winter Forecasts: 12:05 PM Post

Rockford, IL
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Around Average
Snowfall: Slightly Above Average

Stuttgart, AR
Temperature: Around Average
Precipitation: Below Average
Snowfall: Below Average

Grand Island, NY
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Slightly Above Normal
Snowfall: Slightly Above Normal

California, MD
Temperature: Slightly Below Normal
Precipitation: Slightly Above Normal
Snowfall: Slightly Above Normal

Peoria, IL
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Around Average
Snowfall: Around Average

Wichita, KS
Temperature: Around Average
Precipitation: Around Average
Snowfall: Slightly Above Average

Roseland, NJ
Temperature: Slightly Below Normal
Precipitation: Slightly Above Normal
Snowfall: Around Average

Salina, KS
Temperature: Around Average
Precipitation: Slightly Below Normal
Snowfall: Around Average

Chicago, IL
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Around Average
Snowfall: Slightly Above Average

Narragansett, RI
Temperature: Slightly Below Normal
Precipitation: Above Normal
Snowfall: Around Average

2014-2015 Personalized Winter Forecasts: 12:00 PM Post

Lake in the Hills, IL
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Average
Snowfall: Slightly Above Normal

Greensboro, NC
Temperature: Slightly Below Normal
Precipitation: Average
Snowfall: Around Average

Raleigh, NC
Temperature: Slightly Below Normal
Precipitation: Average
Snowfall: Around Average

Detroit, MI
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Around Average
Snowfall: Slightly Above Normal

Macomb Township, MI
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Average
Snowfall: Above Average

Newark, DE
Temperature: Slightly Below Normal
Precipitation: Around Average
Snowfall: Around Average

Howell, MI
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Around Average
Snowfall: Slightly Above Average

Incline Village, NV
Temperature: Slightly Above Normal
Precipitation: Slightly Below Normal
Snowfall: Slightly Below Normal

Sterling Heights, MI
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Average
Snowfall: Slightly Above Average

Springfield, IL
Temperature: Below Normal
Precipitation: Slightly Below Normal
Snowfall: Below Normal

North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) 2014-2015 Winter Forecast

This is the winter forecast for the 2014-2015 winter season North Atlantic Oscillation, or NAO.

ESRL

In this sea surface temperature anomaly chart, we'll examine is the presence of warmer than normal waters near Greenland. The presence of above-normal water temperatures near Greenland isn't just some random occurrence; it's a legitimate pattern in its own right. In the winter, warmer than normal SSTAs near Greenland and eastern Canada can allow for persistent ridging/high pressure to form over the land mass. You Northeastern weather junkies may know this phenomenon to be the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO); the Weather Glossary definition for the NAO can be accessed here. 

Considering we're likely heading into a weak El Nino, and warm waters are indeed surrounding Greenland, high pressure/ridging over Greenland might be something to watch carefully for. We could even see some upper-latitude 'blocking' scenarios*. 

*Blocking is defined as when strong ridges or upper level lows become entrenched in the atmosphere, literally "blocking" the atmospheric flow from continuing to move west-to-east. This has been known to enhance droughts in areas where blocking high pressure remains for days (or even weeks), as well as flooding in areas where blocking low pressure is found.

CPC

The graphic above shows correlations of 500mb height anomalies to the phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation. For example, in the top-left January correlation image, let's say we're in a negative NAO phase. The blues over Greenland means there's a negative correlation, so a negative NAO would bring about positive 500mb height anomalies/high pressure. Similarly, red shadings indicate positive correlations. If the NAO is positive (negative), areas under the red shading are then expected to observe positive (negative) height anomalies, also known as high (low) pressure.

Given that the warmer than normal sea surface temperatures over Greenland may produce ridging/high pressure, which is the negative phase of the NAO (confirmed by the negative correlation in the January panel), and forgiving the unnecessary wordiness of this sentence, the NAO is expected to be predominantly negative this winter.

Andrew