Most Concern Resides Over Saturday Severe Threat

The most concern for severe weather is residing in the 'Day 5' area shaded in purple, as it has been forecasted by the Storm Prediction Center the longest.

The latest GFS has a sizable amount of instability forecast for the area covered in Day 5, amounting to up to 2000 j/kg, considered substantial for severe storms. In addition, wind shearing from the surface to mid levels will be fairly high, at 60 knots, enhancing the potential for tornadoes.

Here is the set up for Day 5. A dry line will be in place over western Texas, meaning a significant dew point difference will be present in that area. A warm from extending north will be pulling warm, moist air northward and enhance instability.

I don't have much time, so this is all I can give you, but I do consistently update my Facebook Page at www.facebook.com/TheWeatherCentre

Evaluations for April 12-14 Severe Weather

If you live in Kansas or Oklahoma and want to know what I think of your town's threat of the severe weather risk, you can comment here or on our Facebook page at
Www.facebook.com/TheWeatherCentre

Lower Level Jet Stream Forecasted to Scream

The Lower Level Jet stream is forecast to make a 50knot entrance to the severe weather event late this week.

Triple Threat of Severe Weather this Weekend

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined 3 areas of severe weather for Thursday, Friday and Saturday of this upcoming week and weekend. More interesting is the fact that these areas are overlapping in the situation, meaning we could have severe storms rolling over the same areas again and again.

This will basically be the set up for the cold front. It will sit in west Texas and the panhandle of Oklahoma. As we progress through the severe weather days, the warm front will drift north, increasing the length of the cold front, which at this point will become almost stationary.
Seeing as jet stream winds will be screaming along at 100 knots+, combined with substantial moisture differences and mid level shearing, this environment may be very ripe for tornadoes.

-Andrew