Rina Strengthens to Category 2

The NHC is currently forecasting Rina to strengthen to a Category 3 hurricane, considered a major hurricane status. Rina is then forecast to make a sharp turn to the north, potentially striking Mexico. At this time, there is a real concern that Rina will hit Mexico as a major hurricane. If you have family and/or friends in this area under the hurricane warning (dark red), advise them to leave ASAP.

Microwave imagery shows an impressively built Rina, with two strong bands of Rina showing up on this imagery. The eyewall is very well built, and Rina looks very strong and in a conductive environment. I would be surprised if the eyewall was not a brighter red or showed signs of strengthening by tonight.

The last hurricane hunter craft to fly though Rina found widespread tropical storm winds, and the hurricane winds kept very close to the center. This tight wrap of stronger winds should expand by at least a bit as more strengthening occurs in Rina.

Rina Becomes a Hurricane; Florida Still in Threat Zone

Rina has become a hurricane and is currently at Category 1 hurricane status. As per the NHC, Rina is forecast to move westward into a NW direction, take a sudden North turn to apparently avoid hitting land. After that, the NHC believes Rina will move in a general eastward direction. I do not trust the last couple track points on this chart, as they have been changing in the last few image updates the NHC has issued on Rina.

The ensemble members tracking Rina remain in a fairly confused state, but a few models still show this hurricane making its way to Florida. It will still be awhile before we can find a consensus on this Florida track, if there will be one.

Intensity models remain in a high placement for forecasts, with most models extending into Category 2 strength and Category 3 strength. Is it possible a major hurricane could hit Florida? Possibly, but this late in the season? Probably not.