SPC 4km WRF Depicts Tropical Storm Landfalling in North Carolina Tomorrow Morning

Courtesy of PoliClimate

The SPC's 4km WRF model is projecting Atlantic Invest 93 to make landfall in North Carolina as a tropical storm, with winds just surpassing 60 knots. The NAM is not showing a landfalling system, and until we get into the evening hours, the RAP short range model will likely not have a good handle on the system.

Atlantic Invest 93 Dangerously Close to East Coast

Atlantic Invest 93 is now present in the Atlantic, and located very close to the East Coast, with a small portion of it already on land in the Carolinas. The system does have a 50% of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next 2 days.

Intensity forecasts do confirm this suspicion, with all models indicating this system to at least become a tropical storm. Beyond that, confidence is pretty low that a hurricane will form. Formation of a tropical storm should happen in the next day or two, with the SPC WRF-NMM actually showing an intense, small and compact circulation of showers and storms with this storm system.

Andrew