Buoy in Eye of Debby Records 60 Knot Wind Gust

Buoy SGOF1, just offshore of Florida, was in the eye of Debby and did record the highest wind gust I have seen from Debby.

SGOF1 observed a wind gust of nearly 60 knots, which equates to roughly 70 MPH. Considering that this is how strong Debby was just offshore, it makes things a little more believable as to any wind damage that has been observed on land.

Andrew

All Eyes on Florida as Debby Preps for Landfall

The weather world is focused on Florida today as tropical storm warnings fly in advance of the landfall of Tropical Storm Debby later this week. The NHC projects Debby to remain nearly stationary over the next few days, before making its move Thursday morning and striking Florida. The main rain shield has already been torn off of the system, and it is very possible that the exposed center of circulation could bring Debby down to a tropical depression before landfall happens. Additionally, some dry air in the western Gulf of Mexico could pose an issue for development on that side of the circulation center.

The top half of the picture is cut off for a reason.

This image from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) of 5 day rainfall illustrates the potentially deadly threat that Florida faces from Debby despite recent weakening, with the HPC suggesting nearly a foot and a half of solid rain could fall in isolated portions of Florida, especially on the Gulf Coast side. Already, flash flooding is an issue in Florida from Debby, and if this forecast verifies, travel by boat (or ark) would be the preferred mode of transportation.

Andrew

Buoys Record Tropical Storm Debby's Strength

Buoy 42046 in the Gulf of Mexico, west northwest of Tampa Bay, FL, recorded a minimum pressure reading of roughly 29.42 inches as Debby moved over the region. You can clearly see the time when Debby actually entered the immediate vicinity of the buoy, which was around 7:00 PM CDT 2 nights ago. Overnight, and throughout yesterday and last night, pressures have dropped by nearly half an inch.

An observation station in Clearwater Beach, Florida recorded a wind gust at 50 knots (roughly 57 MPH) in the evening hours last night as the intense part of Debby moved over the area. Since then, wind gusts have been restricted to the 25-35 knot mark, and have been stabilizing throughout the morning into the 25-30 knot range.

Something also pretty interesting, from buoy 42036, was the significant wave height, which topped out at nearly 18 feet. Think about that- 18 feet wave heights. That's like something that the crab fishers in 'Deadliest Catch' would experience, out in the Bering Sea.

Updates will continue throughout the day.

Andrew

Rain Shield of Debby is Torn Away; Weakening Begins

Imagery shown above indicates that the strongest part of Debby, AKA the rain shield, has been torn away from the center of circulation. The circulation is currently just south of the Florida Panhandle, while the rain is southeast of Georgia at this time. Because the protection of rain and storms around the center are gone, weakening appears likely and has been happening overnight, from 60 MPH to 50 MPH wind speeds.
Debby's center of circulation is also large for a tropical storm and loosely defined. Considering all of what I typed above, it seems more than likely that some additional weakening should occur.

Andrew

Buoy Data Suggests Debby Wind Gusts Surpass 50 Knots

Wind gust data at the KVOA buoy indicates that wind gusts really began to fluctuate during the day today, but wind speeds have really accelerated this afternoon and evening, with gusts over 50 knots having been observed roughly an hour ago.

Pressures at nearby buoy 42376 have been dropping over the last several days, with nearly 29.65 millibars this evening. The dropping pressure indicates that Debby has been strengthening with time. Since Debby is nearly stationary, and pressures continue to drop despite no movement, it is only logical that Debby is genuinely strengthening and that this does not appear to be movement of the storm.

More updates will continue for the rest of tonight and into tomorrow and beyond on the Facebook page and here.

Andrew

Debby To Cut Across Florida; East Coast Be Wary

Latest model guidance and surface observations suggest to me that Tropical Storm Debby will move eastward and cut across Florida before heading up the East Coast.

Debby will likely hit at or slightly above what I have projected on here, depending on how far north or south Debby ends up at the time of eastward movement. Debby should make landfall on Florida and incite potentially major flooding, with a few inches already laid out across the dry landscape. The soil may not be able to immediately soak in the water due to the dryness of the ground, so some flash flooding is not off the table. A tornado threat will continue to be present.
After Florida, Debby will most likely track along the East Coast. How close to the coast remains a question. Right now I am thinking that some clouds and stray showers could brush up against the coast, but major effects seem unlikely. Debby should remain a tropical storm throughout the rest of her life, with a brief potential for very weak Category 1 Hurricane status.

Andrew

Debby Track Still a Toss Up; Florida Landfall Seeming More Possible

The National Hurricane Center has shifted eastward, and now calls for a landfall in Louisiana, dangerously close to New Orleans, Louisiana. Considering that Katrina hit that region several years ago, the threat of a tropical system making another landfall will likely put many residents on edge.
However, the track remains very up in the air. I took a glance at GFS Ensemble members, and they are literally all over the place. The majority of them appear to take a Florida path before going out to sea. Here is a look at dynamical models from the 12z model suite.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/atcf/12zatcfearlyinvest2best.gif

The models shown above here show a favored track into the Florida region. It should be noted, however, that there remains a spread in potential track from Florida into Texas. At this point in time, it seems probable that a Florida landfall is likely at this point in time.

More updates will appear on the Facebook page as well as on here.
Andrew

Tropical Storm Debby May Become Hurricane This Week

The National Hurricane Center is showing Debby to move west-northwest across the Gulf of Mexico, and become a hurricane as it does so. Tropical storm warnings have also been issued for portions of the Louisiana Gulf of Mexico Coast, the Alabama coast, and the Florida Panhandle also has a warning on it. These warnings are for the outer rain bands rather than a landfall at this point.

From: NAVY/NRL TC_PAGES Page

Satellite imagery shows how strong the rain bands are across Florida. The center is also visible, and we can see those strong rain bands trying to wrap around the center. Should this wrapping happen, it would indicate that the central pressures are lowering and we are seeing the system getting itself together.

I will be providing updates all day long on Debby on the Facebook Page, with updates also on the blog here.

Andrew

Tropical Storm Debby Eyes Texas

The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Debby to make a turn northwest tomorrow and head due west towards southern Texas, confirming recent CMC/ECMWF model suspicions. Debby is forecast to remain a tropical storm throughout the next several days, but this forecast could change with time.
Tropical Storm Warnings are now in effect along the eastern half of the Louisiana coast, as Debby will likely incite a little flooding and windy conditions with outer rain bands swiping the area. The major cities at risk for effects from this storm include: New Orleans (LA) and Corpus Christi (TX), with Houston (TX) possibly also getting affected by this event.

Andrew

BREAKING: Tropical Storm Debby has Formed

Data from the hurricane hunters indicates that there are several reports of the system having tropical storm strength winds. Thus, Invest AL96 is now likely going to be classified as Tropical Storm Debby in the next NHC update.

Andrew