May 14 Severe Weather: Slight Risk cut back

The slight risk has been cut from the Ohio Valley.
This was expected, as there was too much morning cloud cover, and the clouds that did break were already developing into updrafts. It was too early for updrafts to occur.
However, the slight risk is still on for the Southeast and Northwest.

May 14 Severe Weather: Partial Clearing occurring

As expected, partial clearing is occurring in areas of the Ohio Valley.
Those areas are where the worst storms can be expected.
However, it appears that there may already be some updrafts, which would significantly lower the threat of severe weather today.
I would extend the slight risk for Alabama and the rest of Georgia if I was the forecaster.

May 14 Severe Weather

A practically stationary upper low centered over the Ohio Valley will provide cyclonic flow, inducing thunderstorms. However, recently in the last couple of days, rounds of convection have stabilized the atmosphere to a point where an outbreak is not expected.
Morning visible satellite shows IND/OH/KY/WV covered by a stretch of clouds. This will limit convection to possibly the entire show. However, areas that see broken sun will quickly be destabilized. Those areas are where the most intense thunderstorms can be expected.
However, updrafts can be expected in areas with the most diabatic heating. Those stronger storms will have a primary hail threat.

From the Carolinas into Georgia, the cold front is currently located around Tennessee and progressing eastward. All models are agreeing on thunderstorms developing ahead of this front. This would happen in the early afternoon hours. At this time, it appears that these storms will be less powerful than yesterday's round, but there is still potential for stronger storms with a primary localized damaging wind and hail threat.

In the Northwest, CAPE values of 1000 j/kg and above combined with height falls will initiate some storms. The strongest will be capable of damaging winds and hail.

Today's Tornado Threat

Today's Damaging Wind Threat

Today's Hail Threat

May 14: Civil Emergency Message- Morganza Spillway, LA

(No Image Available)


Public Service (Civil Emergency or Danger) Watch
LAC009-045-097-099-101-150215-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE
LOUISIANA GOVERNORS OFFICE OF HOMELAND SECURITY AND EMERGENCY
PREPAREDNESS
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
902 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE
GOVERNORS OFFICE OF HOMELAND SECURITY AND EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS.

...EMERGENCY MESSAGE FROM THE STATE OF LOUISIANA...

AVOYELLES...POINT COUPEE...ST. LANDRY...ST. MARTIN...IBERVILLE...
IBERIA...ASSUMPTION...ST. MARY...TERREBONNE...LAFOURCHE

DUE TO THE HIGH WATER IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...THE US ARMY CORPS
OF ENGINEERS HAS OFFICIALLY ANNOUNCED THEY WILL OPEN THE MORGANZA
SPILLWAY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FLOODING WILL OCCUR IN THE
SPILLWAY AND LOW LYING AREAS IN AND AROUND THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
BASIN IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. CITIZENS SHOULD PAY CLOSE
ATTENTION TO INFORMATION FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS AND THE MEDIA FOR
UPDATES AND FURTHER INSTRUCTIONS.

May 14: Place To Be- San Antonio, Texas

May 14: Today's Place To Be is San Antonio.

San Antonio:
HIGH: 82, cooler at night.
Chance of Precipitation: 0%
Wind: Northeast 5-10 mph