Explanation of WHY Midwest will have bad winter coming this afternoon

An explanation of why the Midweat will have the worst winter will be coming out this afternoon right here, on The Weather Centre.

LRC Patten Discovered- Winter Pattern Taking Shape

This is an update regarding the very recent discovery of pieces of this winter's new LRC (Lezak Recurring Cycle). Let's start off with what the LRC is. The LRC is a cycle that is believed to form between October 1 and November 10th. In this timeframe, it is believed that a storm/pattern sets up that will eventually repeat itself around 40-60 days later. This same/very similar pattern continues through the winter and fades into summer. No year is exactly the same, and there is a new pattern every single year.

So, here's what Gary Lezak, founder of the LRC, has put out very recently. He believes that this year's pattern will include a strong low pressure system present in the Lower Great Lakes and into the nation's midsection. An example of this system occurred on October 13th, October 19th, and October 31st. Below is the stronger example from October 19th.

Gary Lezak states that this system will likely recur this year, and be a 'major' storm system. If this LRC turns out that way, I would not be surprised to see cities such as Chicago, Milwaukee, Des Moines, and possibly St. Louis getting in on a heck of a lot of snow this winter from this repeating system. Lezak believes this is good evidence of a piece of this year's LRC due to the fact it repeated 3 times in one month. I do agree to the fact that 3 times' occurrence is a very interesting piece.

What do I think on this? I believe that the LRC pattern theory is valid. It is sound, and has proven to exist based on the guidelines set out by Gary Lezak. If you would like more information, including the nation's precipitation and temperature maps, you may see the entire blog post from Lezak by clicking on this link.

LRC Discovered

We will post what the new LRC winter pattern is this afternoon!

Positive EPO Shows Thanksgiving Will Be A Warm One

Classic signals of a positive phase EPO index are showing up on the long range 11-15 day 850mb temperature anomalies. In the Alaska region, we have much below normal temperature anomalies as a trough of low pressure will likely be in place if this verifies. Canada will have a high pressure over the region, accompanied by warmer temperatures as shown on this model. This solution of a positive EPO has been trending (showing up over and over again) for several days now. But is this actually plausible?

12z Models EPO forecast

The GFS model (the image on top), and the GFS' ensemble members both agree on the EPO staying strongly positive, thus keeping the East US warm. The ECMWF, while it doesn't go out as far as the GFS, actually goes higher than the GFS for this EPO forecast, though not visible on this particular graph.

Something we have been talking about is how winter is projected to 'start' in Mid December. This +EPO is another factor that will have a say in the start of the cold weather, and will be something watch going into December. We still think that will happen, and will update you as we continue to go through November.

If you are still confused on what the positive phase EPO does, look at the top image for more information.

Low Sunspot Activity To Keep US Cool Through Next Several Years

Something we forgot to mention in our final 2011-2012 winter forecast is how the sun will dramatically affect this winter and years to come. That thing we forgot to mention is how low sunspot activity will affect our winter- and it's more than you probably think.
You see, sunspots are areas of intense magnetic activity, leading to the loss of ability to produce convection (rising air, which is how thunderstorms form), therefore creating dark spots on the sun. The sun goes through cycles of high and low sunspot activity, which you can see a history of below.

Basically, when these sunspots are at a low, Europe cools down. It has been noted that, at one point when sunspots were at extremely low levels several hundred years ago, Europe and North America were under very cold winters and an overall colder climate. This extremely low level was called the Maunder Minimum. During this Maunder Minimum, sunspot activity was at levels we have not seen in records since that time. Check out the graph below showing just how low sunspot levels were.

This Maunder Minimum created what is called the 'Little Ice Age', when extremely cold weather settled over Europe.
This winter, solar activity will be at a very low level, one we haven't seen in a while. Essentially, the sun will go into more of a hibernation while going through it's 24th cycle. These cycles are the maximums of sunspots. See the graph below showing the couple most recent sunspot cycles.

We are currently edging up in the new 24th cycle, as you can see in the top image. However, this sun cycle will be weak, so it is expected to max out in sunspot numbers less than what it has in the last couple cycles. This means that the minimum following this upcoming 24th cycle will be even lower than regular minimums should the solar activity remain very low. To confirm this suspicion, let's look at the forecast for this 24th cycle.

You can clearly see in the forecast (red) line of how the maximum number of sunspots will be low- below 100 sunspots, considered a low number for a maximum. So, all this said, what does it all mean? It means that the world will see cooler weather. Global Warming may very well be affected by this low solar activity, and I would not be surprised at all to see global warming take a 'break' for a while. While looking into sunspot forecasts as far out as 2016, we found that the number of sunspots may potentially rival that of the Maunder Minimum. However a 5 year forecast cannot be called accurate, but it is being taken into consideration.