Sunday Severe Threat Incorporated into LRC

Sunday's severe weather threat has been found to be incorporated into Lezak's Recurring Cycle, or LRC. Roughly 40-50 days ago, in mid April, we had the tornado outbreak across the central Plains. Severe weather reports are shown below.

As you can see, tornadic storms raced across much of Kansas, some of northern Oklahoma and parts of Iowa and Nebraska. Looking below at 500mb heights from April 14-15, we see a strong trough had shifted into the Plains, producing massive wind shear and a big chance for severe weather. In fact, that day involved the SPC issuing a high risk on Day 2 for only the 2nd time in history, as seen below.

500mb heights from April 14-15, 2012

Evolution of April 14-15 severe weather outbreak risks

The LRC looks to swing a trough into the East again, which has prompted the SPC to issue a risk area in the day 4-8 timeframe. Time will tell, but a storm with connections to the April 14-15 one will certainly be interesting to watch.

LRC Aligns for Potential Severe Weather Outbreak in Late May

The Lezak Recurring Cycle does appear to be pointing out a severe weather event in the late May timeframe. Now, the event I have caught is about 40 days in between the event and what is being forecast, and that is just outside the 45-50 day cycle period that has been recognized for this year's LRC pattern, so use with caution.

On April 15, 2012, we had a severe weather event associated with a strong low pressure system, as seen below.

(I do realize that the maps are about a day in difference, but they involve the same system.) A strong storm system had moved east and northeast into the far northern Great Lakes and produced a regional tornado outbreak, mainly in Kansas and southern Iowa into Nebraska. This storm system was below the 996mb mark, indicating how strong it was. Let's take a look at the May 25 forecast off the FIM.

The FIM is showing a very strong system hitting the far northern Plains after coming out of the Western US. Similar to the April 15 event, a ridge of high pressure will be located in the Eastern US, with a warm sector crossing the Plains and Midwest. The difference involves strength and placement of the system, which is to be expected, considering each cycle is not exact to the previous one. That said, if this does match up with the LRC, this is what may happen.

Andrew

'Super Storm' on FIM Has Past Relations with LRC

EDIT at 8:55 PM CDT (5/16): Severe weather report graphic was replaced.

The latest FIM model is blowing up a storm system in the eastern Rockies on the 25th to as low as 982 millibars, or slightly lower. This is definitely the strongest system I have seen in a while. (Granted, I don't exactly check out all the long range models on a daily basis)

This has, in fact, happened before. Let's take a look. Here is what happened in the 500mb level on Saturday, April 14.

We can see a strong storm system digging deep into the Southwest, with another area of lower pressures located just north of Montana. The system in the Southwest does appear to be very intense, judging by the depression in the pressure lines running across the graph. Of interest is also the ridge of high pressure in the eastern US, and the storm system offshore the Mid Atlantic, characterized by the depression of the pressure lines.

Severe weather reports do indicate that a tornado outbreak did occur (or a few cells with long tornadoes), and this could indeed happen again. The details will have to be worked out at a later date, however.
Now, let's take a look to what the FIM is showing going into the 27th of May.

The FIM is showing a deep low pressure system moving into the Southwest as well, with a storm system (potentially tropical) offshore the Southeast and a strong ridge in the East. Does this look familiar? It should. Now, some details still have to be sorted out, but this does appear to match up with the Lezak Recurring Cycle time of about 45-50 days for each cycle. That said, a severe weather event should be expected in the late May timeframe if the LRC holds true.

Props to the AccuWeather Forums for their extensive knowledge on the subject.

Andrew

LRC Patten Discovered- Winter Pattern Taking Shape

This is an update regarding the very recent discovery of pieces of this winter's new LRC (Lezak Recurring Cycle). Let's start off with what the LRC is. The LRC is a cycle that is believed to form between October 1 and November 10th. In this timeframe, it is believed that a storm/pattern sets up that will eventually repeat itself around 40-60 days later. This same/very similar pattern continues through the winter and fades into summer. No year is exactly the same, and there is a new pattern every single year.

So, here's what Gary Lezak, founder of the LRC, has put out very recently. He believes that this year's pattern will include a strong low pressure system present in the Lower Great Lakes and into the nation's midsection. An example of this system occurred on October 13th, October 19th, and October 31st. Below is the stronger example from October 19th.

Gary Lezak states that this system will likely recur this year, and be a 'major' storm system. If this LRC turns out that way, I would not be surprised to see cities such as Chicago, Milwaukee, Des Moines, and possibly St. Louis getting in on a heck of a lot of snow this winter from this repeating system. Lezak believes this is good evidence of a piece of this year's LRC due to the fact it repeated 3 times in one month. I do agree to the fact that 3 times' occurrence is a very interesting piece.

What do I think on this? I believe that the LRC pattern theory is valid. It is sound, and has proven to exist based on the guidelines set out by Gary Lezak. If you would like more information, including the nation's precipitation and temperature maps, you may see the entire blog post from Lezak by clicking on this link.