Why is everyone saying the Midwest will have the worst winter?

I'm sure you may be wondering why everyone is thinking the Midwest is under the gun for the biggest snowfall and worst winter this year. We were too, and when we got our answer, we decided you would want to know too.

1. MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE
It is predicted that more moisture will be guided into the US, likely via the polar jet stream and tropical jet stream.  This additional moisture will only enhance any possible precipitation that may occur with storm systems in the US.

2. LA NINA
La Nina makes the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean cooler than normal, thus preventing warm air from rising and overall cooling down the atmosphere. This enables a bigger potential for colder air to migrate south into the US, and for snow to occur slightly more times than rain in this occasion.

3. AMO
The AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) index is complicated and something we're still trying to map out. However, last year, the AMO index was in a strong positive phase. This was a helper to induce blocking, which basically stalls the atmosphere (example: a high pressure system stays in place for several days due to blocking). This year, the AMO much weaker. Therefore, blocking will not be as prevalent, meaning a more active storm track and thus more precipitation.

4. NAO
The NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) index oscillates between positive and negative. The negative phase involves a high pressure in Greenland that lets cold air flow south. The positive phase involves the cold air bottled up in Canada and warm air moving slightly north and affecting portions of the north US. Last winter, the NAO was already negative as this point in time. This month, we have a positive NAO moving towards a negative phase. Therefore, it can be expected that blocking will also be less of a factor, combined with the AMO compared to last year.

5. AO
The AO (Arctic Oscillation) oscillates between positive and negative as well. When the AO is positive, winds circling an area in the far north hemisphere spin tighter and stronger, locking cold air in that region and not letting it go south into the US. In the negative phase, the winds are weaker, and the cold air escapes southward into the US. The AO is variates more each month, so it's a little harder to identify patterns.


6. SOLAR ACTIVITY
Solar Activity is something that is worth watching this year. Every year the sun goes through cycles. It is currently entering cycle 24, but as it enters the new cycle, the maximum number of sunspots will be greatly reduced from normal. This loss of sunspots means cooler weather for the globe. The temperatures this winter will be affected by the sunspots, and it is important to note that temperatures will not improve due to the sunspots until more sunspots form.

Explanation of WHY Midwest will have bad winter coming this afternoon

An explanation of why the Midweat will have the worst winter will be coming out this afternoon right here, on The Weather Centre.

LRC Patten Discovered- Winter Pattern Taking Shape

This is an update regarding the very recent discovery of pieces of this winter's new LRC (Lezak Recurring Cycle). Let's start off with what the LRC is. The LRC is a cycle that is believed to form between October 1 and November 10th. In this timeframe, it is believed that a storm/pattern sets up that will eventually repeat itself around 40-60 days later. This same/very similar pattern continues through the winter and fades into summer. No year is exactly the same, and there is a new pattern every single year.

So, here's what Gary Lezak, founder of the LRC, has put out very recently. He believes that this year's pattern will include a strong low pressure system present in the Lower Great Lakes and into the nation's midsection. An example of this system occurred on October 13th, October 19th, and October 31st. Below is the stronger example from October 19th.

Gary Lezak states that this system will likely recur this year, and be a 'major' storm system. If this LRC turns out that way, I would not be surprised to see cities such as Chicago, Milwaukee, Des Moines, and possibly St. Louis getting in on a heck of a lot of snow this winter from this repeating system. Lezak believes this is good evidence of a piece of this year's LRC due to the fact it repeated 3 times in one month. I do agree to the fact that 3 times' occurrence is a very interesting piece.

What do I think on this? I believe that the LRC pattern theory is valid. It is sound, and has proven to exist based on the guidelines set out by Gary Lezak. If you would like more information, including the nation's precipitation and temperature maps, you may see the entire blog post from Lezak by clicking on this link.

LRC Discovered

We will post what the new LRC winter pattern is this afternoon!

Positive EPO Shows Thanksgiving Will Be A Warm One

Classic signals of a positive phase EPO index are showing up on the long range 11-15 day 850mb temperature anomalies. In the Alaska region, we have much below normal temperature anomalies as a trough of low pressure will likely be in place if this verifies. Canada will have a high pressure over the region, accompanied by warmer temperatures as shown on this model. This solution of a positive EPO has been trending (showing up over and over again) for several days now. But is this actually plausible?

12z Models EPO forecast

The GFS model (the image on top), and the GFS' ensemble members both agree on the EPO staying strongly positive, thus keeping the East US warm. The ECMWF, while it doesn't go out as far as the GFS, actually goes higher than the GFS for this EPO forecast, though not visible on this particular graph.

Something we have been talking about is how winter is projected to 'start' in Mid December. This +EPO is another factor that will have a say in the start of the cold weather, and will be something watch going into December. We still think that will happen, and will update you as we continue to go through November.

If you are still confused on what the positive phase EPO does, look at the top image for more information.