December 20 Blizzard Event (Texas, Oklahoma Affected)

Light green is a Blizzard Watch
Blue is Winter Storm Watch

Parts of the Southern Plains are under a blizzard watch this evening in preparation for the storm system that has finally made its way onshore the US. The system itself is currently ejecting from the Pacific into the US, where it will make its way eastward and then to a northeast direction.

In anticipation of this, we have created a graphic showing that the areas in dark blue are likely to experience blizzard conditions from heavy snow and high winds. Wind gusts are expected to reach above 40 MPH. Lighter accumulations can be expected on the northern side of the snow portion. On the southern side of the low, however, rain is expected.

Here's a couple images from the NWS Offices

Amarillo, Texas NWS Office

Chance of a White Christmas

Climatologically Chance of a White Christmas

This year's chance of a White Christmas

This year's chance of a White Christmas is substantially lower than what is climatologically expected for the country. We are expecting a white Christmas to happen in the Rocky Mountains, as well as the Canada/US border. There is also a low 'likely' section in the Northeast, especially by the lake effect snow belt. With no pattern changes expected soon, we believe that this is the best solution right now. Christmas is still a while off, so we will definitely be putting out some more ideas as to if this will verify. This does indeed depend on the Dec. 20 storm and the Christmas storm potential, so this map will be changing.

Times for each post for Town's Personal Winter Forecast

This is a set time for each 3 towns for each post for each day to be released.

Post 1: 9:00 AM CST
Post 2: 12:00 PM CST
Post 3: 2:00 PM CST
Post 4: 5:00 PM CST

This is for each day of forecasts released.
Here's the towns that will have winter forecasts made: 

Chance of a White Christmas Map will be Out at 1:00 PM CST

Texas Under Winter Storm Watches for Over 12 Inches of Snow

Texas is under a Winter Storm Watch for the December 20th storm (click here for this morning's discussion) as that area is expecting over 12 inches of snow. Here is what the models are saying:

6z GFS 84 Hour Snowfall Accumulation

The GFS is going in cautiously compared to the GFS, with maximum accumulations up to 15 inches, which is still a lot of snow. 

12z NAM 84-Hour Snowfall Accumulation

The 12z NAM is going in, guns blazing, with maximum snow accumulations projected at 21 inches- nearly 2 feet! The NAM has been known to be a little on the heavy side with snow accumulations, so we will be going with the GFS for now, until we see the new 12z GFS, which ought to be similar to the 6z GFS as we are getting into the short range part of forecasting.
This post was just a briefing, and if there is anything else we will notify you.