Wednesday, December 21, 2011
Thunderstorm Risk in the Southeast
Personal Winter Forecast: Chicago IL, Sioux Falls SD, Mount Laurel NJ
CHICAGO, ILLINOIS
Chicago is facing a difficult winter. After a dismal start, the Windy City is waiting for a pattern change that their winter very well may depend on. We believe that Chicago should end up with slightly below normal snowfall after a slow winter start, but temperatures should become moderate. Precipitation should be above normal after a wet fall, and warm storms may add to the rain and thus add to the winter precipitation.
South Dakota should end up with a cold winter and some snowy winter weather as the Canadian cold air will eventually open up to the North Plains. Precipitation should be normal.
Precipitation: Above Normal (Up to 2 inches above normal)
Temperature: Around Normal
Snowfall: Slightly Below Normal*
*Lower than normal Confidence.
*Lower than normal Confidence.
Chicago is facing a difficult winter. After a dismal start, the Windy City is waiting for a pattern change that their winter very well may depend on. We believe that Chicago should end up with slightly below normal snowfall after a slow winter start, but temperatures should become moderate. Precipitation should be above normal after a wet fall, and warm storms may add to the rain and thus add to the winter precipitation.
SIOUX FALLS, SOUTH DAKOTA
Precipitation: Normal
Temperature: Below Normal
Snowfall: Above Normal (At least 2 inches above normal)
South Dakota should end up with a cold winter and some snowy winter weather as the Canadian cold air will eventually open up to the North Plains. Precipitation should be normal.
MOUNT LAUREL, NEW JERSEY
Precipitation: Above Normal (At least 1 inch above normal)
Temperature: Possibly Ending Above Normal
Snowfall: Above Normal (At least 5 inches above normal)
Coastal storms should put the Northeast in at least a fairly good position for snowfall and precipitation, but not for temperatures, as a wet fall and a warm fall have given a glimpse of what will come.
Coastal storms should put the Northeast in at least a fairly good position for snowfall and precipitation, but not for temperatures, as a wet fall and a warm fall have given a glimpse of what will come.
Pattern Change Update- Too Little Too Late??
Posted December 21--
Is the Pattern Change coming too little too late??
The ECMWF seasonals. They are forecasts made by the ECMWF model for seasonal forecasts. We have heard from the weather world that the December seasonals are not looking good, temperature wise, for the rest of winter. While this seems like a long stretch, let me tell you why it is possible.
Stratospheric Temperatures.
The thing is, they just aren't warming fast enough for any significant pattern change to happen until Mid January- and that's best case scenario. The way these temperatures are heading is, in my point of view, signaling that winter won't be present for the foreseeable future. As soon as these 30mb, 50mb and 70mb temperatures start jumping to warmer temperatures, we will be able to set a timeframe. Until then, there's no point in wildly guessing.
The NAO and AO are supposedly going to remain trending positive until this pattern change occurs, so a Northeast snowstorm is looking unlikely right now and past the first week or two of 2012. That is quite long range, so our confidence on that is low.
We will keep you updated for any further information about this pattern change, right here, on The Weather Centre.
Is the Pattern Change coming too little too late??
The ECMWF seasonals. They are forecasts made by the ECMWF model for seasonal forecasts. We have heard from the weather world that the December seasonals are not looking good, temperature wise, for the rest of winter. While this seems like a long stretch, let me tell you why it is possible.
The thing is, they just aren't warming fast enough for any significant pattern change to happen until Mid January- and that's best case scenario. The way these temperatures are heading is, in my point of view, signaling that winter won't be present for the foreseeable future. As soon as these 30mb, 50mb and 70mb temperatures start jumping to warmer temperatures, we will be able to set a timeframe. Until then, there's no point in wildly guessing.
The NAO and AO are supposedly going to remain trending positive until this pattern change occurs, so a Northeast snowstorm is looking unlikely right now and past the first week or two of 2012. That is quite long range, so our confidence on that is low.
We will keep you updated for any further information about this pattern change, right here, on The Weather Centre.
Personal Winter Forecast: Omaha NE, Detroit, MI, Holmesville, OH
OMAHA, NEBRASKA
Precipitation: Normal to Slightly Below Normal (-0.2 to -0.4 inches)
Temperature: Above Normal (+1 to +2 degrees)
Snowfall: Around Normal
Omaha will be ending up with some interesting precipitation and temperatures, but overall, those two may end up below normal. Snowfall ought to become normal.
DETROIT, MICHIGAN
Precipitation: Slightly Above Normal (+0.2 to +0.4 inches)
Temperature: Above Normal (+0.5 to +2 degrees)
Snowfall: Slightly Above Normal (2-7 inches above normal)*
*Confidence is low for amounts in inches.
Detroit will have an interesting winter as soon as the pattern change begins. Precipitation and snowfall will be above normal, while temperatures should end up slightly above normal.
HOLMESVILLE, OHIO
Precipitation: Slightly Above Normal (+0.2 to +1 inches)
Temperature: Above Normal (Up to 2 degrees above normal)
Snowfall: Above Normal (Up to 10 inches above normal)
Holmesville will get hammered when the pattern change takes hold, with above normal snowfall, precipitation and temperatures. A warm fall has led to the likelihood of continuing warm temperatures, while a very very wet fall will continue into winter.
Precipitation: Normal to Slightly Below Normal (-0.2 to -0.4 inches)
Temperature: Above Normal (+1 to +2 degrees)
Snowfall: Around Normal
Omaha will be ending up with some interesting precipitation and temperatures, but overall, those two may end up below normal. Snowfall ought to become normal.
DETROIT, MICHIGAN
Precipitation: Slightly Above Normal (+0.2 to +0.4 inches)
Temperature: Above Normal (+0.5 to +2 degrees)
Snowfall: Slightly Above Normal (2-7 inches above normal)*
*Confidence is low for amounts in inches.
Detroit will have an interesting winter as soon as the pattern change begins. Precipitation and snowfall will be above normal, while temperatures should end up slightly above normal.
HOLMESVILLE, OHIO
Precipitation: Slightly Above Normal (+0.2 to +1 inches)
Temperature: Above Normal (Up to 2 degrees above normal)
Snowfall: Above Normal (Up to 10 inches above normal)
Holmesville will get hammered when the pattern change takes hold, with above normal snowfall, precipitation and temperatures. A warm fall has led to the likelihood of continuing warm temperatures, while a very very wet fall will continue into winter.
30 Minutes until the first 3 Personal Winter Forecasts are Released!
In 30 minutes, the first 3 personal winter forecasts will be released. They are: Omaha Nebraska, Detroit Michigan, and Holmesville Ohio.
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