CFS v2 Projects Below Normal Temperatures

Week 3 (top) and week 4 (bottom) forecasts are in from the CFS v2, and after nailing the record breaking warmth, the CFS is indicating that temperatures may actually become below normal towards mid to late April.

This comes as a ridge of high pressure may come into the Gulf of Alaska, as told in this morning's post.

-Andrew

Record-Breaking Warmth Unlikely as Ridge Fills Gulf of Alaska

The latest GFS 500mb analogue forecast is indicating that another spell of record-breaking warmth is unlikely as a ridge of high pressure moves into the Gulf of Alaska (GOA).

This past winter, warm spells would occur with a low pressure system present in the Gulf of Alaska. That low in the GOA is a traditional signal of a warm spell forthcoming in the US.

With our most recent record-breaking warmth, there was indeed a strong low pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska. However, with a ridge now poised to take over, it can be expected that temperatures much closer to average will be prevalent. I'm not saying they will be average, because I am getting some signals that they will be warmer than normal, but temperatures will be closer to average than record breaking.

-Andrew

Notice

The computer is back up and running at full power. However, because it has been through much more than a computer should go through in the last 48 hours, there will be no updates for the remainder of the day. Do, however, expect thorough weather discussions to come back tomorrow.
All long range forecast release times remain on track.

-Andrew

Notice #2

Update on software issue: I am still working as hard as I can, but things are looking a little too grim for my liking. A repair of the disk does not appear to be successful. More updates as the situation progresses.

Andrew

Notice

This is about as horrible of timing as things can get.
The normal computer I use may have suddenly died out. I am working hard to try and correct the problem, but this does have potential to delay the long range forecast releases. At this time, however, there is no delay.

I will provide updates every so often, but this is the best I have for now.
My sincerest apologies,
-Andrew