Cumulus Clouds Increasing in Dryline Vicinity

A band of cumulus clouds is increasing in west Oklahoma and north central Texas as a dryline begins to move east and provoke thunderstorms in the region.
As the dry air begins to move eastward, we can expect these updrafts to become more intense as soundings have indicated about 2800 j/kg of CAPE (instability) is available for these storms. A few sounding analogues provided by the Storm Prediction Center indicate that there is roughly a 20% historical chance of a tornado, with nearly a 50% chance of significant hail based on historical events similar to this one.

Notice

A post concerning issues with trolls and troublemakers on this blog will be issued as soon as possible after 3:00 pm CDT.
A serious breach in the moral code of The Weather Centre has occurred, and as a result, consequences are forthcoming.
I sincerely apologize to those who are nowhere near troublemakers, but this is not a place for inappropriate comments and the like.

Andrew

WRF Showing Rotating Updraft Potential

This image shows the maximum updraft helicity. In other words, it shows the spinning of thunderstorms as they form, which could create a tornadic situation.
There is an abnormally high rate of helicity in Kentucky and Southern Indiana, which greatly worries me that the tornado risk may be a bit underestimated with instability around 1000 j/kg.

-Andrew

Supercells Possible in the Ohio Valley Today

There is a risk of severe weather today, as a currently ongoing cluster of storm cells moves southeast into the slight risk area.

Here is a skew-t valid for 21z today, a.k.a about 4 pm CDT. First, let's look at the instability (CAPE). When there is a large difference between the dashed line and the solid line, it means one of 2 things. If the dashed line is on the left, it means there is a lot of CINH, or storm-suppressing factors. If it is on the right, as it is shown here, there is a lot of CAPE, or storm-supporting factors.
There is a very large gap, indicating a large cape of about 2500-3000 j/kg, considered significant at this point in time.
I want to take a look at a few indices shown in the rows of parameters below the skew-t.

•Supercell Potential (3rd result, 2nd column) is at a very high 97 percent. Now, this means that, under very ideal conditions, supercells would be in a pretty good place to form. However, this does not mean that supercells will definitely form. I would still watch for that potential, however.

•ConvT, also known as Convective Temperature (1st row, 7th result) determines what temperature it would takes to get warm air to rise and form thunderstorms. To determine if the temperature will reach 80.1, the ConvT labeled here, I turn the lowest point of the solid line (temperature) from Celsius to Fahrenheit. The closer to the bottom of the image indicates closer to the surface. So, I take 29 Celsius and convert, giving me a temperature of 84.2 degrees. So, that means that warm air would be able to rise and form thunderstorms.

•STP (last row, 2nd result) is the Significant Tornado Parameter. Basically, it gives an idea of how likely tornadoes are. I personally don't trust it, as it can overestimate in some situations. The STP for this timeframe is 1.6, which is pretty low. But if there was an actual tornado predicting parameter, I would guess that the chance of a tornado would probably rest at 20-30%, which is pretty low. That doesn't mean I totally discount it, because who am I to make a tornado predictor?

-Andrew

Severe Weather Targets the Mississippi Valley Today

There is a risk of severe weather this afternoon for states around the Mississippi Valley. This comes as a frontal boundary sags southward and a dry line is located out west.

This is a sounding valid for 18z tonight, known as 7 pm Central time. When you get the dashed line to the right of the soldi blue line, that is when you develop instability. As you can see, there is a large gap between the solid line and dashed line, indicating a lot of instability. CAPE shown on the sounding indicates over 3000 j/kg of instability present at that time.
Another thing seen on the sounding is something called 'ConvT', which appears to indicate the temperature when air will rise to produce thunderstorms. To figure out the surface temperature, I use 28 degrees Celsius, as the solid temperature line is in that 25-30 Celsius area closest to the bottom of the image. Converting 28 Celsius to Fahrenheit results in a temperature of 82.4 degrees F, a good 2 degrees above the ConvT of 80.4 F.
A couple final indices: The Hail index shows hail of 1.5 inches is possible. The hail index is the first parameter in the 4th column labeled 'Hail'. The Supercell Potential parameter, 3rd result in the 2nd column, indicates a 60% chance of a supercell if convection were to develop (which it will).

I don't blame you at all if you don't understand this- I just started getting the gist of it recently after a lot of researching and learning, so my apologies if I am confusing you.
In short, thunderstorms, with a fair chance of becoming supercells, are possible today.

-Andrew