There is a very large gap, indicating a large cape of about 2500-3000 j/kg, considered significant at this point in time.
I want to take a look at a few indices shown in the rows of parameters below the skew-t.
•Supercell Potential (3rd result, 2nd column) is at a very high 97 percent. Now, this means that, under very ideal conditions, supercells would be in a pretty good place to form. However, this does not mean that supercells will definitely form. I would still watch for that potential, however.
•ConvT, also known as Convective Temperature (1st row, 7th result) determines what temperature it would takes to get warm air to rise and form thunderstorms. To determine if the temperature will reach 80.1, the ConvT labeled here, I turn the lowest point of the solid line (temperature) from Celsius to Fahrenheit. The closer to the bottom of the image indicates closer to the surface. So, I take 29 Celsius and convert, giving me a temperature of 84.2 degrees. So, that means that warm air would be able to rise and form thunderstorms.
•STP (last row, 2nd result) is the Significant Tornado Parameter. Basically, it gives an idea of how likely tornadoes are. I personally don't trust it, as it can overestimate in some situations. The STP for this timeframe is 1.6, which is pretty low. But if there was an actual tornado predicting parameter, I would guess that the chance of a tornado would probably rest at 20-30%, which is pretty low. That doesn't mean I totally discount it, because who am I to make a tornado predictor?
-Andrew
18 comments:
Hello Andrew.I checked the radar out of Lexington Kentucky.It looks impressive.Don't know if any severe wether is happening though.Cincinnati is on the northern fringe of this.
There was a large hail report in IL from this cluster of storms. From looking at radar, they were probably producing up to penny sized hail when they went by Cincinnati.
Mike, thanks for telling me about snowday. Those are some nasty people on there. They all need to grow up. A shame that they do what they do. I think several of the troublemakers come from there. Take care, Mike!
Hello ERN WX! Thanks for the confirmation on the storms.That snowday sight is a breeding ground for trouble,it will probably get worse before it gets better.Winter time was really bad there.People were really being crazy and nuts what they were posting.It will be interesting too see how many of them will come on this site,hopefully not many.If they do,maybe they will post weather related topics not other foolish stuff! Take care,ERN WX!
It's quite a shame how SnowDay has evolved. I view it as a highly respected site, but that live chat is doing nothing good for its reputation. Especially after this past 'winter'...
Good afternoon Andrew.I couldn't agree more about snowday.It's a shame what happened to it.Maybe the site owner Craig Mcpeek would remove the live chat it might get better.I kind of feel bad for him because he probably works very hard to manage his site just like you do!I really hope you don't put a live chat up.They might flock to your site and post crazy things.
Well now I know where the word fart flake comes from (Snowday.com)
Your right anonymous,that site is plaqued with trouble makers!!!
Hey Andrew.We have a small cluster of thunderstorms over Holmes and Wayne counties Ohio at 4:41 p.m.Funny thing,only cells in Ohio currently.
Yes, Mike. That cluster is currently the only crew of storms in Ohio. I was expecting more in the way of t-storms.
Hello ERN WX.The nws says there is only a 50% chance this evening.I myself also thought there would be more storms.It's clearing off now.It didn't last too long.I live in Holmes County Ohio.Thre heavier cluster stayed to the north of me in Wayne county.Nothing close to severe though.
Andrew, the fact that you haven't deleted any of these comments is a shame. I know that you consider yourself to be a perfect kid on the internet and that you are not a troll in any way shape or form, but you in fact are trolling right now. These comments on this post can be hurtful to some of the people on snowday including me. Now I know that this comment will be deleted by the time you see it because I criticized you, Andrew Racki, the perfector of the internet. I also know that you won't be deleting any of the comments on this post that could be hurtful including yours because you are not humble enough to admit your own mistakes. I know this may seem harsh to you, but some of the comments are harsh as well. Sincerely, another anonymous person.
Anonymous, what do you think you are trying to say? You are the perfect kid ion the internet? Those folks were not attacking the website. Only the problematic people on the website. They seem like they want to help. Why don't y'all think this over. And to tell you the truth, you are being hurtful. Clean up your act. Nobody is perfect.
Okay Anonymous, that's enough. First off, I do not at all consider myself to be "perfect". I strongly believe in free speech and the right for people to express themselves. I delete comments if they are rude to *people*. If someone wants to say they don't like this site, I will keep it up. I will disagree with them, but still keep it up. Second, I am not a perfecter of the internet. I think we covered that. Third, I want to know why you think i'm not humble enough to admit my mistakes. I openly admit I bombed this winter. Who didn't? We all make mistakes. No one is immune to them, and if you think I am, that's just a plain wrong assumption.
And another thing: It seems as if you read all the comments except my last one: "I view it as a highly respected site". But let's be honest- I do not want to talk weather with people who troll with fart flakes day in and day out. It is not a productive environment, in my eyes.
Now, here's the thing: If you have any more complaints, please direct them at me. I don't want any offensive things going at other commenters, as they are not the owners of this blog and cannot delegate what to delete and keep as for comments. So I am right here if you have anything else to say.
The last thing I have to say is to please stop. I'm not about to have a war break out due to some unfortunate behavior on SnowDay.
-Andrew
Ok Andrew, the same Anonymous here. Even though you did say that it is a highly respected site, that is saying that you think people respect it. That doesn't necessarily mean that you respect it, it just means that you think other people respect it. And still you and others hurt my feelings. I almost cried. What with ERN WX dude calling them nasty, Mike calling it a breeding ground for trouble, and you calling it shameful how we evolved, I take direct offense to that. Even though these people I mentioned above are trolling, they support your cause so you won't delete it. While I may have gone a bit too far in calling you perfect in the rude way I did, you still are letting people bash snowday. I don't like it, and other people who read this blog don't either. So Andrew, I am saddened that you still have failed to see your errors/ignore them, and until I and people of snowday get a good apology, I am not going to visit this site. And I easily come here about 20-50 times a day waiting for posts to come out. Thank you for the service in the past, and Goodbye. God bless.
I hate to start an uproar, and I know that the person who commented above me is the only person who is allowed to comment on this post, but I agree with what Anonymous is trying to say here. While I certainly do believe that the people on SnowDay are troublemakers, I don't think we should be going around bashing them in the way we all did. Including myself. (I made the comment about where fart flake comes from). While Anonymous could have taken a better approach to his problem, I do think we owe it to him to delete my comment and the others that may be hurtful to some people, and I think he deserves an apology from all of us.
Okay, let's put this to bed.
I want to issue a sincere apology to you and all the people of SnowDay on behalf of the behavior that has been displayed here recently, including my own.
While I stand firm that the live chat can be an area where less-than-appropriate behavior is able to formulate, and that that same behavior may be damaging to the site, other things that were said may not have been appropriate.
To correct some things: When I said it was a respected site, I meant that I, myself, viewed it as a respected site in terms that I do respect it. The reason I called it 'shameful' was because the live chat, while it is a very good idea, has turned into a ground where weather appears to take a backseat to fart flakes.
That is all I will be dealing with this matter, so if you are not satisfied, I apologize, because this is indeed a weather blog.
-Andrew
Thank you very much Andrew. Your apology really does mean a lot to me.
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