Forecast Discussion: April 10, 2012

Hotspot of the day: Southern Plains
Some potentially severe thunderstorms may pop in the presence of a stationary front in Oklahoma and Louisiana/Arkansas. The main threats look to be damaging winds and hail.

Northeast
A batch of storm systems in the area will produce mainly rain in the region with some potential snow mixed into those rain showers.

Carolinas and Virginias
A trough extending through these states will produce clouds and a few isolated showers.

West Coast
The presence of an offshore storm system will make for a rainy day on the West Coast.

Most Concern Resides Over Saturday Severe Threat

The most concern for severe weather is residing in the 'Day 5' area shaded in purple, as it has been forecasted by the Storm Prediction Center the longest.

The latest GFS has a sizable amount of instability forecast for the area covered in Day 5, amounting to up to 2000 j/kg, considered substantial for severe storms. In addition, wind shearing from the surface to mid levels will be fairly high, at 60 knots, enhancing the potential for tornadoes.

Here is the set up for Day 5. A dry line will be in place over western Texas, meaning a significant dew point difference will be present in that area. A warm from extending north will be pulling warm, moist air northward and enhance instability.

I don't have much time, so this is all I can give you, but I do consistently update my Facebook Page at www.facebook.com/TheWeatherCentre

Evaluations for April 12-14 Severe Weather

If you live in Kansas or Oklahoma and want to know what I think of your town's threat of the severe weather risk, you can comment here or on our Facebook page at
Www.facebook.com/TheWeatherCentre

Lower Level Jet Stream Forecasted to Scream

The Lower Level Jet stream is forecast to make a 50knot entrance to the severe weather event late this week.

Moderate Risk of Severe Weather Issued Today

Overall Severe Weather Threat

Hail Threat

Tornado Threat

Damaging Wind Threat

West Oklahoma is under a moderate risk for severe weather today, with hail being the main risk alongside lower threats of tornadoes and damaging winds.
Instability is expected to be fairly high, with values reaching above 2250 j/kg. This should set the stage for active thunderstorms today.
These storms will be ongoing into the evening. With a fairly intense hodograph, funnel clouds are not out of the question with today's storms. These storms will most likely be single celled, possibly discrete supercells based solely on the threats today.

-Andrew