Severe Weather Abound Today

Severe weather is spread across much of the eastern US, especially the Northeast and Great Lakes.

A cold front is sagging south at the moment. Latest analysis indicates that there is a lot of instability available, but pockets of capping inversions spread out across the Great Lakes, which is likely going to suppress storms for a little while longer.

As for the Southeast, scattered severe storms have already developed and continue to meander across the region highlighted.

Now, as for the Northeast, the same cold front is sliding south, but poses a tornado threat, as well as an enhanced damaging wind threat. Analysis of instability and shearing indicates a pocket of enhanced shearing values in the enhanced risk area, with roughly 1000 j/kg of instability. Storms that manage to form in the area definitely will pose a tornado threat, but this could be confined to northern parts of the Northeast.

Andrew

Heat Wave to Overtake Country Again

The latest arrival of another heat wave appears to be attempting to settle in yet again over the course of the next several days.

The Madden Julian Oscillation appears to be entering a stage where it is so weak that the MJO has little to no effect on the weather pattern here, which would allow the heat wave to stay past its welcome. A big component of this latest MJO development, however, concerns what phase it will end up in after emerging from this very weak stage.

The North Atlantic Oscillation looks to be helping with cool down efforts, staying negative for at least the next week before possibly turning positive. This negative NAO should, however, help the Northeast out in terms of beating the heat.

More on this developing story as information becomes available.

Andrew

Geomagnetic Storm Ends

The geomagnetic storm that produced dazzling auroras last night is now dying down, as seen in the below picture.
While the storm has ended, the Aurora Borealis is extended fairly far south on the other side of the world. This means that there is a possibility that the northern lights could remain unusually far south tonight, but that remains to be seen.

Andrew

Geomagnetic Storm Weakening; Aurora Sightings Reported in Kentucky

The planetary K index indicates that the geomagnetic storm is weakening after causing a night of spectacular aurora sightings.

The Space Weather Prediction Center seems to be agreeing in the geomagnetic storm dying off as the day goes on, and this diminishing activity is shown in current auroral activity.

However, last night, there was a report of aurora sightings in Kentucky, as well as pictures from Kansas and Colorado. This is usually something we would see with a stronger geomagnetic storm, so to see the Aurora Borealis stretch that far south with a K index only at 6 is pretty interesting.

Andrew

Drought Conditions to Be Enhanced Over Next Week and Beyond

[July 15, 2012 8:03 PM CDT]

Below normal precipitation is what the NAEFS is forecasting for the next week and beyond, further enhancing the now-historical drought situation ongoing across the country.

A low pressure system is attempting to move into the Gulf of Alaska, which correlates to warmer than normal conditions across the country. The evolution of this drought will be interesting as we move through July into August, when the summer heat traditionally kicks in.

The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) looks to be entering a position where it does not significantly affect weather patterns, which could very well lead this high pressure ridge of heat to stick around for a while in the country.

Andrew