Invest 94 Forms Off Africa

Invest 94 has just moved off the shores of Africa, and is beginning to move westward as it begins its journey across the Pacific Ocean.

Latest satellite analysis shows Invest 94 poorly organized, with the center apparently well displaced to the east of major convection associated with the invest. Should little development of convection occur near the center, I believe that this system will have a rough time getting itself together.

The center's system is currently progged just above the 10 N line. One can use the 10 N line to help determine if the system will threaten the Caribbean, or curve north into the middle of the Atlantic. Model guidance indicates that a general westward movement appears likely for the next few days before a sudden curve north.

Because it is above the 10 N line, and major convection is displaced to the south, any influence could easily drag the center away from the convection, whereas a more developed invest would have a tougher time being forced around.

Dry air is not too much of a concern at the moment, with the majority of dry air to the north of the invest. However, there is a swath of moderately dry air to the northwest of the invest. Should this dry air remain relatively stationary, and the invest curves north, it would essentially be a nail in the coffin for such a weak and disorganized system.

Andrew

Strong Storms Firing in Midwest

Strong to severe storms are firing along a cold front that will be sweeping through the area in the overnight hours.
These storms are in several small clusters, meaning the risk should primarily be damaging winds and hail.

Andrew

Widespread Drought Improvement Possible

The Climate Prediction Center issued their new drought outlook today, on the heels of a relatively new, wetter pattern evolving in the northeast quadrant of the nation.

The CPC is now forecasting the Southwest, Plains, Midwest, Ohio Valley, Southeast, and Northeast to all improve their drought conditions from now to November 30. However, the Central and Southern Plains appear to be headed for a continuation of the drought already at hand.

In other news, Hawaii is entering a drought, while Alaska is one of a few states to have no drought impacts, along with Maine, to name a few.

Andrew

Special: Why Long-Range Climate Models May Not Be Correct

By now, I am sure you have seen the climate models spelling an extremely warm world in the next few decades. I was thinking about this prospect and realized that these models may have forgotten a few crucial pieces to this puzzle.

DISCLAIMER: Because I did not make or run any climate models, I cannot say for sure if the factors listed below were taken into account. For informative purposes, I will assume that the following factors were not taken into account.

Changes in CO2 Emissions to Come
I have a feeling that the long range climate models were run with no change to future CO2 productions. While it is plausible that CO2 emissions will increase in the future as third-world countries gain further access to technology, the first-world countries have been, and will continue, to enhance recycling efforts and more fuel-efficient cars. Effectively, should these CO2-cutting proposals work, it may come down to the global temperature not rising as fast. If we're lucky, it may not rise at all for a while.

Sun Hibernation

As I have discussed recently, the sun is forecast to move into a period of hibernation over the next several decades. As illustrated in the chart to the right, the latest sunspot cycle maxes out at a weak 50 or so before going back down into an even weaker state. This cycle, known as Cycle 24, appears to be the last solar cycle before we dip into an extended solar hibernation, during which the Earth may very well cool. It is unknown what exact effects this will have on weather, but the idea of a general cool down appears likely.




Long Range
One must remember that these long range models are the same as everyday models, like the GFS. The only difference between the two is that the climate model is fitted for only a few specific parameters, and it goes out several decades.
That does not eliminate the error potential that regular forecasting models have. Who says that these climate models are perfect and accurate 40 years away from now? One must remember- that is 40 years. Not a few days- 40 years. If this were run on a regular model, you might as well trash that model.
What i'm saying is that just because climate models are long range does not, in any way, exclude them from a wide error margin.

Andrew

Posting Resumes Tomorrow

I have gotten a little more involved in the forecast of the 2012-2013 winter than I wanted to, thus the lack of posting.
Tomorrow morning, I will be sure to resume posting on the weather. I am sorry for any inconveniences this has caused.

Andrew