Invest 94 Poses Serious Threat To Gulf of Mexico

I have looked at a lot of data this evening and have come to the conclusion that the Gulf of Mexico is indeed at risk from Invest 94, soon to be Tropical cyclone Isaac.

Above is the steering flow at 250-850mb. The steering flow is like seeing a current of water in a sink take a small object and move it around within that current's reach. The steering flow shows where storms may go by identifying wind patterns at different levels of the atmosphere.
In the above chart, we recognize Invest 94 at 40W in longitude, and is shown as a blob of yellow and orange. At the moment, this is not the ideal chart, but if/when rapid strengthening occurs, this is the chart that model forecasts indicate should be used.
If we were to use this to give a rough estimate on the possible track of Invest 94, I could easily see it drifting west and following the band of winds that cuts through the Caribbean. However, the system would likely stay north of the full extent of the current, opting to enter the northern Caribbean and continue west, as model guidance is in agreement with at this time.

This map is the 0 hour analysis (not a forecast) of the Atlantic Ocean in the 500mb heights, with added MSLP. We can see Hurricane Gordon to the upper right corner of the image, which is moving towards Europe. But notice the massive high pressure regime in place across the Atlantic. This is a primary reason why I believe the new model trend of westward motion is right and why the Gulf of Mexico is at risk.
As many of you know, high pressure systems spin winds in a clockwise formation, while low pressure systems go counter-clockwise. This clockwise motion of winds would keep Invest 94 in the southern part of the Atlantic and move it towards the Caribbean. Typically, we will see a a few cracks in between high pressure systems, and these cracks will shoot the invest north. However, now that there are multiple high pressure systems, there are next to no cracks for the system to break through and move north.

I am having a feeling that the Gulf of Mexico is indeed at risk on this. I have not had much success with when I use my instinct on weather events like this, but current and forecast atmospheric conditions, combined with the strength and steering flow of the system tells me that a westward motion will continue with this system, and westward enough to put the Gulf of Mexico on alert.

I decided to run the Tropical Cyclone Forecasting (TCF) Model for Invest 94 at this time, only for track and not intensity.
You can find the TCF's Home page by clicking here.

TCF 7:00 PM Run

Andrew

GFS Smashes Hurricane into Texas in Late August

The latest 12z GFS is projecting a landfall of a hurricane right into downtown Houston, Texas at the very end of August.

Yesterday, the 12z GFS also showed a major landfall of a hurricane on the East Coast. Now, the wide variability of the track is not reassuring, but I am seeing a trend of a system threatening the US. As of now, there is nowhere near a track, but when you get a few scenarios within several runs where a major event happens within a certain range, it usually means something.

Because Invest 94 (the system that would be responsible for this) has begun a westward trend rather than a northwest trend, this track would seem like an OK solution. However, the GFS is known for being deliberately too strong and too fast with tropical systems, so take this for what it's worth.

Andrew

"Go Ahead, Make My Day."- Invest 94 To Rapidly Strengthen

Graphics from the RAMMB CIRA agency indicate a very high potential of tropical cyclone formation in between the 35W- 50W longitude lines in the Atlantic.

Tropical cyclone formation potential over the waters where Invest 94 is about to move into is at a very good level at this time, with the RAMMB CIRA folks outlining a large area of 'good' potential in red where Invest 94 is only miles away from.

A look at satellite imagery shows a very well defined circulation in the invest, but an exposed eastern side of the system. However, a strong cluster of showers and storms is currently in place over the western and northern sides of the system. Should we see more development over the western portion of the system, the invest would quickly become a tropical cyclone, and this may be only hours away.

Andrew

GFS Landfalls Hurricane on East Coast In Late August

Screenshotted from Americanwx Models

The latest 12z GFS model has produced a scary scenario in extremely late August/Early September, where a hurricane with pressure as low as 980mb landfalls on the East Coast. The worry comes as the GFS is unusually skilled in forecasting tropical cyclones.

From CIMSS

The GFS is projecting Invest 94, shown above currently stationed offshore Africa, to move west and quickly develop into a deep tropical system. As you can see, right now Invest 94 is not too organized. Despite the lack of major convection, I am seeing some startling signs of circulation, with a very defined banding pattern evident across the invest's cloud extent. This is very worrying to me, and only a few sustained bursts of convection would be needed to get the invest into a serious player.

From RAMMB CIRA

The current tropical cyclone formation probability suggests a pretty elevated chance of a tropical system to form in the presence of Invest 94, which is roughly near the 30 W and 15 N lines. If we look back to the satellite imagery, one can also see where it may go in the future.  The 10 N line can be used as a reference point to help determine tropical cyclone tracks. For example, systems to the north of 10 N typically have a better chance of recurving north and out to sea, while systems below the 10 N line typically have a better chance to move west and impact the Caribbean.

However, the past track of Invest 94 displays the clear west-northwest motion of Invest 94. If the system is to pose a threat to the East Coast, a nearly perfect westward path would need to be established, and development would have to be delayed. As we saw with Ernesto, a lack of strength with the system can have the system keep at a westward path, with motions to the south possibly tainted in there as well.

Because the GFS is so long range with it, I question the validity, as I do with all long range forecasts. However, a strangely well-defined circulation and fair west-northwest movement tells me that the East Coast is indeed in a possible path of this system.

Andrew

Invest 94 Forms Off Africa

Invest 94 has just moved off the shores of Africa, and is beginning to move westward as it begins its journey across the Pacific Ocean.

Latest satellite analysis shows Invest 94 poorly organized, with the center apparently well displaced to the east of major convection associated with the invest. Should little development of convection occur near the center, I believe that this system will have a rough time getting itself together.

The center's system is currently progged just above the 10 N line. One can use the 10 N line to help determine if the system will threaten the Caribbean, or curve north into the middle of the Atlantic. Model guidance indicates that a general westward movement appears likely for the next few days before a sudden curve north.

Because it is above the 10 N line, and major convection is displaced to the south, any influence could easily drag the center away from the convection, whereas a more developed invest would have a tougher time being forced around.

Dry air is not too much of a concern at the moment, with the majority of dry air to the north of the invest. However, there is a swath of moderately dry air to the northwest of the invest. Should this dry air remain relatively stationary, and the invest curves north, it would essentially be a nail in the coffin for such a weak and disorganized system.

Andrew