South Plains 2014-2015 Winter Forecast

This is a regional winter forecast for the South Plains region. For more winter forecasts, please visit the 2014-2015 Winter Forecast Directory.

The Weather Centre

In the temperature department, I'm expecting the Southern Plains to end up around average, as warmth in the Western US glides east into the Plains at times, and the cold weather in the Midwest and East pushes south at times as well. More prolonged periods of colder weather are possible, so long as the jet stream is suppressed south, as usually happens in El Nino periods.

Precipitation should end up around average, if not slightly above normal. An enhanced subtropical jet stream due to the incoming El Nino should help to boost precipitation trends in the Southern Plains, particularly along the Gulf Coast.

Snowfall is the wild card here, since it really takes just one storm to define the winter as below or above normal in the snowfall category. For that reason, and the consequential high level of uncertainty, I'll keep my snowfall estimate around average.

Andrew

North Plains 2014-2015 Winter Forecast

This is a regional winter forecast for the North Plains region. For more winter forecasts, please visit the 2014-2015 Winter Forecast Directory.

The Weather Centre

Temperatures should be between two dominant air masses. I expect the eastern part of this region (i.e. eastern Dakotas into Minnesota, part of Nebraska) to see below normal temperatures, while the western portion (Montana into Wyoming and Colorado) should expect warmer than normal conditions. Between these two outlooks, relatively normal temperature anomalies should prevail.

Precipitation should be average to below-normal, with the below-normal anomalies confined to the western part of this region. Around normal precipitation values can be anticipated elsewhere.

Snowfall is a big question mark. Right now, above normal snowfall is favored in the Nebraska/South Dakota corridor into Minnesota, with below-normal snowfall in the Rockies around the Front Range. Depending on how this fall unfolds, this snowy corridor may shift.

Andrew

Midwest & Great Lakes 2014-2015 Winter Forecast

This is a regional winter forecast for the Midwest and Great Lakes regions. For more winter forecasts, please visit the 2014-2015 Winter Forecast Directory.

The Weather Centre
The phrase was accidentally cut off, but says "Snowy, Chilly Winter"

For temperatures in the Midwest and Great Lakes, below-normal should be the big story. Potentially well-below normal temperature anomalies may be positioned in the Central and eastern Great Lakes, as upper latitude blocking may try to force the polar vortex more into North America, and closer to the northern US.

Precipitation is the wild card here. As of now, I'm expecting average to slightly below average precipitation in the Midwest area. Below normal precipitation should be the story in the southern Midwest, such as southern Indiana and much of Kentucky. Precipitation may then be average further to the north, in the Upper Midwest.

Snowfall projections include a snowy winter for the Upper Midwest, though keep in mind this may change in the future. The heaviest snow is currently favored to fall from the Upper Midwest regions (i.e. Minnesota and Wisconsin) into northern Illinois and most of Michigan. Lake effect snowfall is expected to hover around normal to below normal.

Andrew

Ohio Valley 2014-2015 Winter Forecast

This is a regional winter forecast for the Ohio Valley region. For more winter forecasts, please visit the 2014-2015 Winter Forecast Directory.

The Weather Centre

In this (very poor resolution) graphic, we'll review temperature, precipitation and snowfall outlooks for the Ohio Valley.

For temperatures, the entire area is expected to see below normal temperatures, as analogs suggest the emergence of persistent upper-latitude blocking, which could then lead to multiple Arctic air intrusions in the United States. More pronounced below-normal anomalies may be found in the northern portion of the Ohio Valley.

Precipitation is favored to be below-normal, as typically is seen in weak El Nino scenarios. Our analog package confirms that this is the expected prognosis.

Due to the below-normal precipitation outlook, snowfall is expected to be less than normal as well. I would watch for a few strong storm systems to bring the area a good bout of snow, as typically happens each winter, but the overall outlook is grim for above-normal snowfall.

Andrew

Southeast & Gulf Coast 2014-2015 Winter Forecast

This is a regional winter forecast for the Southeast and Gulf Coast regions. For more winter forecasts, please visit the 2014-2015 Winter Forecast Directory.

The Weather Centre

In terms of temperatures, a generally below-normal outlook is favored. This comes as analog years suggest much of the Central and East US to be under negative 500mb height anomalies, resulting in cold weather thanks to a favorable global weather pattern. The cold may not be as intense in Florida, as the jet stream is suppressed south from time to time, allowing warmer weather to surge north on intervals. However, areas north may find themselves in for a chilly winter.

With respect to precipitation, I'm expecting most of the Gulf Coast to emerge in March 2015 with a wetter than normal winter having just finished up. In typical El Nino set-ups, the jet stream is pushed south due to upper-latitude blocking, something that may unfold again this winter. The Southeast region - that is, to the north of Florida and the Gulf Coast - may see relatively average to slightly below-average anomalies, particularly in the northern parts of Mississippi, Alabama, and into Tennessee.

Snowfall is expected to be average to slightly below average, but a lengthy discussion is not needed, since snow is pretty much nonexistent for the Gulf Coast and most of the Southeast.

Andrew