Europe 2014-2015 Winter Forecast

*Confidence in this forecast is low. Use with caution.

The Weather Centre

The expectation for this winter is that we will see substantial blocking high pressure stationed over Greenland, known to many weather enthusiasts as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). When the NAO is positive, strong low pressure occupies the area around Greenland, while ridging high pressure covers the land mass in a negative NAO. When the jet stream shoots north due to the ridging over Greenland in a negative NAO, it then plummets south as it approaches Europe. This introduces an area of colder-than-normal temperatures over northern and western Europe. Depending on the strength of this negative NAO, temperatures may end up warmer than normal in southeastern Europe, though it is not marked on this map.

As for precipitation, slightly below normal anomalies might be expected in northwestern Europe, before a gradual trend to normal, or even slightly above normal anomalies evolves towards Italy and nations to the east.

Due to the low confidence in this forecast, the description here certainly isn't as impressive as it could be. Any additional questions concerning Europe may be asked below.

Andrew

Canada 2014-2015 Winter Forecast

This is a regional winter forecast for the nation of Canada. For more winter forecasts, please visit the 2014-2015 Winter Forecast Directory.

The Weather Centre

The winter forecast for Canada this season calls for alternating swaths of alternating temperature anomalies. In western Canada, particularly in British Columbia, slightly warmer than normal conditions are expected, as conditions warrant potentially consistent ridging along the western coast of North America. On the other side of Canada, covering the Nova Scotia, Newfoundland and Quebec areas, there is a threat of periods of very warm conditions. This stems from the increased risk of ridging over the Greenland region (known by many as a negative NAO phase), and could stick around for some time.

In the middle of Canada, right around Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Ontario and into the Nunavut regions, cooler than normal conditions are expected. This projection comes from the prediction that the two areas of ridging on either coast of North America may allow a piece of the dreaded polar vortex to be forced south into Canada, possibly towards the US, thus resulting in very cold conditions.

No precipitation anomalies are marked, as uncertainty is too high to demarcate any anomalies at this time. However, drier than normal anomalies might be seen in far southwestern Canada in due time, with slightly wetter than normal conditions in southern Ontario in the near future.

Explanations of why this forecast is as it is can be found on the Official 2014-2015 Winter Forecast post, accessible from the Winter Forecast Directory link at the top of this page.

Andrew

Alaska 2014-2015 Winter Forecast

This is a regional winter forecast for the Alaska region. For more winter forecasts, please visit the 2014-2015 Winter Forecast Directory.

* Uncertainty for this regional forecast is high. Use caution.

The Weather Centre

Temperatures across Alaska will likely end up average to slightly above average, thanks in large part to the swath of warmer than normal waters in the Gulf of Alaska. This feature may allow for persistent high pressure to position itself along the western coast of North America, extending into Alaska. The far northern reaches of the state may also see warmer than normal weather, as analog years from the Official winter forecast are calling for widespread upper latitude blocking (high pressure).

Precipitation is a big question mark this winter, but if any area is to see above-normal precipitation, I'm expecting it to be the southern half of the state.

Snowfall is the other big question mark this winter, such a wild card that the only guess I'm willing to make is that the coastal region of southern Alaska sees either average or slightly above-average snowfall.

Andrew

Southwest 2014-2015 Winter Forecast

This is a regional winter forecast for the Southwest region. For more winter forecasts, please visit the 2014-2015 Winter Forecast Directory.

The Weather Centre

Temperatures in the Southwest are listed as warm, but I might be more comfortable describing it as slightly above average. The expectation this winter is that we will see high pressure affecting the west coast of North America for prolonged periods, and this should keep most of the region warm. However, if the El Nino-enhanced subtropical jet stream can hold its ground, the region might come out of this winter with around average temperatures.

Precipitation will likely be more average than anything else, despite the image describing it as slightly dry. It is listed as slightly dry due to the uncertainty with how wet the El Nino situation will make the Southwest this winter, but uncertainty is slowly lessening in favor of a slightly wetter outlook than the one posted above.

Snowfall should be around average, maybe even a bit above average. Uncertainty is quite high here, so a more in-depth forecast cannot be given just yet.

Andrew

Northwest 2014-2015 Winter Forecast

This is a regional winter forecast for the Northwest region. For more winter forecasts, please visit the 2014-2015 Winter Forecast Directory.

The Weather Centre

The snapshot above pretty much defines this regional forecast. Temperatures are expected to be above normal this winter, with occasional shots of cooler air if strong storm systems from the Gulf of Alaska can push over the area. However, with the alignment of sea surface temperature anomalies over the Gulf of Alaska right now, as well as the incoming El Nino, I'm favoring a warm winter.

Precipitation is likely to end up below average, as typical El Nino conditions shift precipitation away from the Pacific Northwest. Expected ridging along the west coast of North America ought to limit precipitation as well.

Snowfall is expected to be below normal, as you could probably derive from the temperature and precipitation outlooks above. The reasons behind this outlook are the same: West Coast ridging and the El Nino.

Andrew