We May Be Moving...

Between the hours of 5:00 PM CT and 7:30 PM CT this evening, Blogger erased all stats on its blogs for an unidentified reason.

I am furious over this. I take great pride in being able to wake up in the morning and go to bed at night seeing how many views I have gotten for the work I have done. To have that erased crushes me. That's 30 months of hard work gone.

I've decided I have had enough of Blogger's shenanigans. I am preparing the Wordpress version of my site in the event that stats for this blog are not restored by 6:00 AM CT Tuesday.

Here is the URL for the Wordpress site.

http://theweathercentre.wordpress.com

La Nina-Status Waters Creeping Into Eq. Pacific

As the weather world scrambles to decipher the recent change in ENSO status from a solid El Nino to what appears to be a neutral ENSO, the Equatorial Pacific is throwing another curveball- a string of below normal water temperatures has turned up in regions Nino 1+2 and Nino 3 of the ENSO monitoring area. Such a string of anomalies may indicate that a more La Nina situation is setting up in the waters.

The string of below normal water temperatures is not extremely significant, and many of those little below-normal anomalies on this 'string' are only slightly below normal. However, the sudden appearance of these little bubbles of below normal sea surface temperatures are concerning to me in the sense that the Equatorial Pacific is sending many mixed messages.

There is a spot of very below normal waters below Nino regions 1+2, 3, and 3.4. However to the west, there is also an above normal body of water several dozen meters under the surface. It's as if the waters are trying to make all three ENSO phases happen at once- there is a neutral-ENSO-like water signature on the surface, a La Nina signature below the eastern waters, and an El Nino signature below the western waters of the ENSO monitoring area.

So what? Why should I care about how warm or cold water is?

If we see a persistance of this body of below normal waters, or even an expansion, the possibility of a developing La Nina must be accounted for. As previously mentioned in this post, lower level winds across the world are tuned more to a La Nina than an El Nino- something that must be closely watched as we enter the late fall-early winter weeks.

If I were to make a forecast on what we can expect for the ENSO in the winter, I am just not too sure of what I really would say. On one hand, we have a very solid body of La Nina-status waters just below the surface. However, on the other hand, we still have a fairly large expanse of El Nino-status waters on the western side of this image above. Yet, on the surface, it's just pretty stagnant- no defined areas of  above or below normal waters.

These next few weeks will be a wait-and-see game as the Equatorial Pacific tangles with itself in trying to stabilize a proper ENSO solution for the winter.

Andrew

Tropical Corner: Atlantic Tropical Activity Ramping Up Soon

The latest forecast from the Climate Prediction Center on the 200 hPa level indicates that conditions will turn favorable for a late season spurt of tropical activity in the Atlantic.

The 200 hPa level is the level roughly where the jet stream is focused, and is associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation, or MJO. Pushing past the conplicated aspects of the MJO, when you see below normal wind speeds at the 200 hPa level (green in the image above), conditions tend to be favorable for tropical cyclone formation. When this happens, the MJO is classified as being in Phases 8-1-2, all three of which can be favorable for tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation is headed to these three phases over the next few weeks, and one can expect an increase in tropical cyclone formation. We have already seen Patty and Rafael form in the last 7 days, and I am expecting at least another storm to be named in the next month as the MJO gets into those phases that get the Atlantic energized.

Andrew

Flash Flooding Possible Overnight

Many models are projecting amounts of rainfall that would create quite a flash flooding problem overnight. Let's take a look into this potential.

The 12z WRF model is projecting many spots to surpass the 4 inch mark, something that may set a challenge to sewer systems of less populated towns. Like the Gulf Coast, the general population tends to believe that since New Orleans has a powerful levee system, the entire Gulf Coast is now safe from flooding because every other town on the coast has the same powerful levee system. Not the case- many towns have levee systems that are miniscule in comparison to New Orleans. In this case, many believe that, since Chicago and St. Louis have big sewer systems, flash flooding won't happen. For more rural towns and some suburbs, the threat of flash flooding is much more of a problem, as their sewer systems are not as advanced as bigger cities'.

The 39 hour total precipitation forecast from the 12z NAM puts many of the same areas under 4 to 5 inches of possible rain- a huge feat for many sewer systems. Models vary greatly on final rainfall totals, but even the possibility of more than one model presenting such a big number is something that is quite alarming.

If you follow the Lezak Recurring Cycle, you will have to watch this system- it may very well come back in early December!

Andrew

Siberia Predicting Cold Winter Ahead

Siberia has developed a healthy snow pack in the past two weeks, with snow now covering much of northeastern Russia. Such a sudden increase in snowpack suggests a cold weather is on the way for the winter.

There is a proven correlation between Siberian snow cover in October and subsequent above or below normal temperatures in the following winter over North America. It has been observed that this snowpack correlates with the Arctic Oscillation, or AO, to make these temperatures fluctuate. The past two weeks have seen a rapid build of snow cover over Siberia and nearby regions of Russia. The presence of such a snow pack suggests a quick and cold start to winter may be on the way. I will be tracking Siberia through October to see what else we can expect for this winter.

Things are looking up for a cool start to winter. The question is, can it last?

Andrew