2011 Hurricane Season Long Range Outlook

Hello everyone! This is the Long Range 2011 Hurricane Season Outlook. As we can see the impacts above, including land. But today, we will focus solely on the Atlantic and Pacific.

Right now, we are in a moderate La Nina, and that La Nina is expected to get stronger.

So, we can see the active tropics in the middle area between Africa and South America, and more wet in the Area above the South America land into the Caribbean.

I am going to argue for the Atlantic that the entire area of the Gulf through the Caribbean lining the South American countries are typically active, however this season is startlingly below normal. I am not going to mark any major increase in hurricane activity.

The Atlantic should see a relatively weak hurricane season into early next year, then likely staying at that or either increasing or decreasing in intensity.

For the Pacific, we see a La Nina is associated with quieter tropics. This is of no surprise- there hasn't been a system in weeks that has had modest potential to become a hurricane. I predict it will remain quiet into the end of the hurricane season this year, with modest strengthening into next year. Fluctuations will happen, and times of rest will occur.

This will be the ONLY Long Range 2011 Hurricane season outlook. A new outlook may be issued early next year.