June 4- Evening Tropical Cyclone Discussion- East Pacific Ocean

There is a 30% chance for tropical cyclone development in the East Pacific.
A system to the west of Central America is catching eyes and concerns from The Weather Centre.
Environmental conditions appear to be conductive for development in the next few days.

For this system's track, it appears there is a consensus for this storm to drift northwest out to sea. One wayward model flings the storm at Mexico, but as of right now I will not believe that. As the storm drifts away to the northwest, there should not be any interference over the next 5 days at least.

The worrying part is the potential intensity of this storm. All models take this system into at least a tropical storm strength. All but one model take the storm into high Category 1 strength to low Category 2 strength. That said, I believe there is a good consensus for the storm to drift out to sea, and also strengthen into a hurricane as of right now.

We will continue posting as needed, and may issue special updates on this system as needed.

June 4- Evening Tropical Cyclone Discussion- Atlantic Ocean

This is a special update that will account for tonight's discussion.
There is a 30% chance of development for a storm system located off the coast of South America. Upper level winds are beginning to decrease and aid in development. However, there is dry air pumping into the system, limiting the development process.

The tracks have changed a considerable degree. There is no longer a bigger consensus for the system to go out to sea, and there is more of a consensus for this system to go towards the Gulf of Mexico. Another option is for the storm to run up the East Coast. However, it depends on the intensity of this system to see if we should actually care about it.

As of right now, the ensembles prefer a non-tropical cyclone storm system into the next 5 days. The one model that goes beyond 120 hours also keeps the storm below tropical storm limits.

As of right now, it looks like the system could drift towards the US through the Gulf of Mexico, but shouldn't develop into anything major in the short term forecasts.

2011 Hurricane Season Long Range Outlook

Hello everyone! This is the Long Range 2011 Hurricane Season Outlook. As we can see the impacts above, including land. But today, we will focus solely on the Atlantic and Pacific.

Right now, we are in a moderate La Nina, and that La Nina is expected to get stronger.

So, we can see the active tropics in the middle area between Africa and South America, and more wet in the Area above the South America land into the Caribbean.

I am going to argue for the Atlantic that the entire area of the Gulf through the Caribbean lining the South American countries are typically active, however this season is startlingly below normal. I am not going to mark any major increase in hurricane activity.

The Atlantic should see a relatively weak hurricane season into early next year, then likely staying at that or either increasing or decreasing in intensity.

For the Pacific, we see a La Nina is associated with quieter tropics. This is of no surprise- there hasn't been a system in weeks that has had modest potential to become a hurricane. I predict it will remain quiet into the end of the hurricane season this year, with modest strengthening into next year. Fluctuations will happen, and times of rest will occur.

This will be the ONLY Long Range 2011 Hurricane season outlook. A new outlook may be issued early next year.