I am not to worried about it, as the NWS states the models are going to fluctuate a bit between North and South. The movement Southeast of the models, still leaves us (Central Illinois, East Central) in a prime area for snow. I prefer the Northern track of the Euro and will stick with that since it has been the most consistent of all of them, despite it brief run South...way south. What is interesting is the warm air advection snow that should begin in my area about Monday afternoon and could deposit 1 - 3 inches before the main event arrives. If the models don't shift further Southeast and the right dynamics are in place, I wouldn't be surprised to see my area get a foot, easily. Still keeping my total at 6 - 9 inches until the details come together better, by tomorrow afternoon. Weather is so exciting....lol
I think you should push up your snowfall estimate a good 3-5'' on both minimum and max. It's a big matchup: ECMWF/GFS verse CMC/NAM/WRF. The heavy hitters against the minors. This is getting intense. Check out the Midwest Storm Page I just put up.
I checked the 18z GFS projected snowfall map and I see where my area is in the 15 - 18 inch range. I would love to believe that at this point....I am cautiously optimistic right now. I want to raise the total for my area up, but I am going to wait until the 12z models are populated and see if they verify the same solution as today's 18z. My fingers are crossed, but you are right... getting intense. Thats the thing about weather, it is intense.
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I am not to worried about it, as the NWS states the models are going to fluctuate a bit between North and South. The movement Southeast of the models, still leaves us (Central Illinois, East Central) in a prime area for snow. I prefer the Northern track of the Euro and will stick with that since it has been the most consistent of all of them, despite it brief run South...way south. What is interesting is the warm air advection snow that should begin in my area about Monday afternoon and could deposit 1 - 3 inches before the main event arrives. If the models don't shift further Southeast and the right dynamics are in place, I wouldn't be surprised to see my area get a foot, easily. Still keeping my total at 6 - 9 inches until the details come together better, by tomorrow afternoon. Weather is so exciting....lol
I think you should push up your snowfall estimate a good 3-5'' on both minimum and max.
It's a big matchup:
ECMWF/GFS verse CMC/NAM/WRF.
The heavy hitters against the minors.
This is getting intense.
Check out the Midwest Storm Page I just put up.
I checked the 18z GFS projected snowfall map and I see where my area is in the 15 - 18 inch range. I would love to believe that at this point....I am cautiously optimistic right now. I want to raise the total for my area up, but I am going to wait until the 12z models are populated and see if they verify the same solution as today's 18z. My fingers are crossed, but you are right... getting intense. Thats the thing about weather, it is intense.
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