March 18 Severe Weather Forecast Discussion

This is a forecast discussion concerning a potential severe weather event early next week.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

We do have potential for a severe weather event, mainly across the Central Plains west into the Southern Great Lakes.

I'm sure you are wondering what the heck that image above means.

Well, that image is a picture of the 12z GFS Lapse Rates. A Lapse rate is the temperature change with height. The faster the temperature decreases with height, the more unstable the atmosphere is.

In the Central Plains, there does appear to be a good deal of instability as the temperature may be rapidly decreasing with height.

The Weather Centre feels this time is the appropriate time to issue a Severe Weather Event Image (SWEI). The SWEI is below.

The Weather Centre has outlined the Central Plains to southern portions of the US as the greatest potential for a severe weather event. The Southern Great Lakes and Midwest portions are also under a lower potential for a severe weather event. The image below represents the risk level for the Greatest Potential area on Monday.

This has been a forecast discussion from The Weather Centre.