There is an outbreak of severe weather forecast today, April 14.
Below are SPC hazards overall.
There is a moderate risk over East Oklahoma, West Arkansas, Extreme Northeast Texas, Southeast Kansas, and extreme southwest Missouri.
Below are threats. In order: Large hail, tornadoes and damaging winds.
We see an elevated risk over the moderate risk area for every threat, but a concerning risk of tornadoes and large hail.
I do predict there will be an outbreak, potentially similar to the one experienced in Wisconsin last weekend.
There is some short-range guidance available to help us out with whether these storms will be a squall line or supercells.
In the above image from the NCEP WRF, we see projected squall lines to develop to the east of a very defined low pressure system.
However, the real worry is placed south of those two lines.
The same WRF model predicts that, hours later, more intense storms will fire up in East Oklahoma. These storms look much more threatening and could be tornadic or have any type of severe weather.
Regardless, this system will be one to watch closely.
Below are SPC hazards overall.
Below are threats. In order: Large hail, tornadoes and damaging winds.
I do predict there will be an outbreak, potentially similar to the one experienced in Wisconsin last weekend.
There is some short-range guidance available to help us out with whether these storms will be a squall line or supercells.
However, the real worry is placed south of those two lines.
Regardless, this system will be one to watch closely.
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