There is concern for an outbreak of severe thunderstorms in the Plains into the Southern Plains.
Below is today's SPC outlook.
There is already a moderate risk of severe storms in the South Plains. That was made by a 45% risk of severe storms of any probability.
We are going to try and zone in on what the main threats will be and when the storms will start.
The WRF-NMM model above depicts a supercell that will come to light in Kansas. However, that only goes out to 36 hours.
That said, there should be more storms developing instead of just one supercell, but it is too far out to tell from the WRF standpoint.
The NAM, on the other hand, gives out a strong bow echo ripping across the Plains. The NAM keeps the severe threat to the east of the moderate risk area.
Right now, it looks like the bow echo is a good piece to go with forecast-wise, but the SPC keeps moving west. I believe the NAM is holding onto a good solution, but the SPC is playing hardball.
Finally, the HIRESW model agrees with the NAM solution but packs more of a punch into the Kansas/Oklahoma southeast corner of the area. The image above is hourly precipitation rate, by the way.
In summary, there is concern over the storms this far out, and we will monitor the situation.
Below is today's SPC outlook.
We are going to try and zone in on what the main threats will be and when the storms will start.
That said, there should be more storms developing instead of just one supercell, but it is too far out to tell from the WRF standpoint.
Right now, it looks like the bow echo is a good piece to go with forecast-wise, but the SPC keeps moving west. I believe the NAM is holding onto a good solution, but the SPC is playing hardball.
In summary, there is concern over the storms this far out, and we will monitor the situation.
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