This is a special update that will account for tonight's discussion.
There is a 30% chance of development for a storm system located off the coast of South America. Upper level winds are beginning to decrease and aid in development. However, there is dry air pumping into the system, limiting the development process.
The tracks have changed a considerable degree. There is no longer a bigger consensus for the system to go out to sea, and there is more of a consensus for this system to go towards the Gulf of Mexico. Another option is for the storm to run up the East Coast. However, it depends on the intensity of this system to see if we should actually care about it.
As of right now, the ensembles prefer a non-tropical cyclone storm system into the next 5 days. The one model that goes beyond 120 hours also keeps the storm below tropical storm limits.
As of right now, it looks like the system could drift towards the US through the Gulf of Mexico, but shouldn't develop into anything major in the short term forecasts.
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