Discussion... After observing 16z RR, 15z HRRR and 16z RUC, it looks like the worst that will hit Minnesota will be some light to moderate convection. I do not anticipate major severe weather to occur, and storm coverage/development is in question.
Analysis indicates strong CINH/cap guarding the area being monitored for storm development. CINH (warm air aloft that suppresses rising air/thunderstorms) levels are around -300 to -450, considered very tough to break. While supercell composites and EHI levels are rising in NE Minnesota and North Wisconsin, the CINH is still a big factor. Current CAPE levels are at 2000-3000 j/kg near the warm front, while at 4000 j/kg farther east.
Will introduce a chance for thunderstorms, with that chance turning likely should the CINH weaken/break.
Clouds also remain in NE Minnesota, which could hamper stronger storms.
Analysis indicates strong CINH/cap guarding the area being monitored for storm development. CINH (warm air aloft that suppresses rising air/thunderstorms) levels are around -300 to -450, considered very tough to break. While supercell composites and EHI levels are rising in NE Minnesota and North Wisconsin, the CINH is still a big factor. Current CAPE levels are at 2000-3000 j/kg near the warm front, while at 4000 j/kg farther east.
Clouds also remain in NE Minnesota, which could hamper stronger storms.
No comments:
Post a Comment