Unfortunately, it looks like the bow echo did stay strong and moved more west than we had anticipated.
We did believe at least a bit of the bow echo would shift more westerly as the 2z RUC/HRRR model runs came in last night, but no one predicted the storms to stay together while moving SSE.
Although the storms did weaken as they moved into a CINH area with warm air aloft that prevents rising air from doing just that, it was a lesser area of CINH than I believe other people had seen coming. I had debated on whether the CINH was enough to prevent the strong storms, and eventually decided yes, so that was my forecasting error.
You can access a loop of the radar from last night by following the link below.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/sfctest/new/archiveviewer.php?sector=20&parm=rgnlrad
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