Thursday, January 19, 2012

January 19-22 Significant Snowfall (Midwest, Great Lakes, Northeast Affected)

EDIT: NWS forecast office's are suddenly backing off snow totals. This graphic is now void and no new graphic will be issued today.

We will be seeing significant snowfalls come across the Midwest and Great Lakes before shifting to the Northeast. This will come as multiple systems converge on the region. We expect to see a clipper come south and deliver some significant snows to the Midwest as it takes in Gulf moisture. This Gulf moisture pretty much brings the clipper to a regular system status. Clippers are, after all, moisture starved. That is the big difference in the weather world between a clipper and a regular system. Factor in Gulf moisture and you have a fast moving system putting down heavy snows. But with the Gulf moisture comes the risk of a dry slot. A dry slot is dry air that will filter into the underbelly of the system, usually on the right side. When you see a comma-shaped storm on satellite imagery, that dry pocket that makes the storm look like a comma is the dry slot.
There will be two sides to this: Snow and Ice. We have outlined the WI/IL/IA border as a potential area where 10-12 inch totals may be sighted. This map is based off of ratios that may be just a tad higher than what we will see, so don't hold your breath for the 10-12 inches- that is merely a heads up. As the system progresses east I expect storm totals to be enhanced by some lake effect snow by Lake Michigan and a Lake Erie/Lake Ontario combination out in the Northeast.
For the Midwest i am anticipating a widespread 4-8 inches above I-80, with isolated 6-10 inches in the harder hit areas, which would be from the IA/IL/WI border point into Chicago. Icing will play a big and unfortunate role for the Midwest. I am anticipating 0.10 inches of ice to be commonplace from Central Illinois eastward into Ohio and parts of the Northeast. I did outline an area where 0.25 inches of ice may fall, but I put that there as I believe the hardest hit areas may approach that number (keyword is approach).
In the Northeast, there may be some icing close to the coast, but for now I don't believe I have the right to insert that ice potential there, mainly because of a lack of forecasting guidance at this time. The Northeast ought to wind up with a good 1-3 inches across a lot of the region, and 3-6 inches in inland areas. An isolated 6-8 inches cannot be ruled out by the Lakes.

BIG WINNERS OF THIS STORM
I am thinking that the big winners of this storm will be primarily in East Iowa, South Wisconsin and North Illinois. Stick with me as I will mention some towns that are more on the smaller side.

MIDWEST WINNERS
Illinois---
Freeport, Illinois
Rockford, Illinois
Possibly Chicago's far NW suburbs

Iowa---
Monticello, Iowa
Dubuque, Iowa

Wisconsin---
Monroe, Wisconsin
Janesville, Wisconsin

NORTHEAST WINNERS
New York---
Buffalo, NY
Rochester, NY
Possibly Utica, NY

('Winners' are listed from top to bottom in confidence of 'big' totals (outstanding from other regions))

19 comments:

Anonymous said...

Northern Ohio is supposed to get snow!! Not ice!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Andrew said...

We have it marked down as snow. It will be predominantly snow, with a potential mix. Obviously the mixed precip chances increase further south.

Anonymous said...

No.I see ice.If you look ay your color code.If you say snow,how much for northern ohio?

Andrew said...

We mentioned it in comments yesterday but forgot to put it up today- a purple overlapping a blue is a mix potential. I say 6 inches max.

Anonymous said...

Hey andrew, I am from ohio the northern parts by cleveland. Excited to finally see a active pattern of snow. WHat would be your best guess when we could possibly see the ""REAL BIG ONE" come through ohio this winter? Thanks Justin.

Andrew said...

If there is to be a 'big one', it would have to be in February. I would say mid FEB. possibly.

Kyle said...

Andrew, with all the snow on the ground in central Indiana does that help our snow chance as appossed to ice?

Andrew said...

Kyle: Very slightly.

Joshua Steiner said...

I just saw that the National Weather Service has the entire storm farther south than what you are saying, as the National Weather Service in Northern Indiana is forecasting 4-7 inches for Fort Wayne, IN and they have shifted the potential mix area mainly south of our CWA. Do you think this is a possibility?

Mike Paulocsak said...

Hi Andrew.So the snow totals are dropping.Is the NWS offices saying the storm is weakening or is it going to shift the snow shield to the south of what you got on your map?Please fill me in.Thanks.

Anonymous said...

Looks like Chicago is no longer getting 10-14 inches. LOL.

Anonymous said...

Maybe half of that total now. I knew days ago that was wishcasting.

Anonymous said...

When will charlotte nc see some snow?and how much do you think ?

Mike Paulocsak said...

Hi.Andrew.When you get some time,check out the gfs on Feb.03,2012.It has a BIG bulls eye of red right over Ohio coming up from the southwest.I understand this is really long range,but it would be nice to see it verify into a HUGE storm for Ohio.

Mike Paulocsak said...

Hi Andrew.This goes with my previous post.I found this on the weather underground site.

Andrew said...

Joshua: We have seen some models trend a tad north, so I'm not too sure about that. I would watch that, however.

Mike: The NWS is thinking the totals are lower than anticipated. I'm thinking of it as a NWS vs Models situation- I'm thinking the 0z model suite will be the vindicator for either party.

Anonymous #1: Chicago could still get 10 inches on the high end. Ratios should average out to 12:1.

Anonymous #2: Charlotte will see some snow in February. I cannot say how much, but I do expect flakes to be falling.

Mike: I'm sure you remember the big winter-starting storm I was discussing. Seeing as how the stratosphere had a recent warming and the polar vortex looks to be displaced into Canada, this could indeed be the 'big one'. However, as both you and I know, it is long range. Thanks for telling me, though. I appreciate your reports on the models.

Mike Paulocsak said...

Hello Andrew.I noticed the NAO values really drop towards the negative values in the long range outlook.Hopefully this is a sign of some more significant snows for the Ohio valley,etc.I personally believe Andrew,that we will make up BIG time for for the snowfall area the second half of winter.I just have a feeling!

Andrew said...

I have a feeling as well, Mike, that this winter will go out like a lion in some aspects, if not many.

Anonymous said...

Death to winter! Burn more carbon!