EDIT at 8:55 PM CDT (5/16): Severe weather report graphic was replaced.
The latest FIM model is blowing up a storm system in the eastern Rockies on the 25th to as low as 982 millibars, or slightly lower. This is definitely the strongest system I have seen in a while. (Granted, I don't exactly check out all the long range models on a daily basis)
This has, in fact, happened before. Let's take a look. Here is what happened in the 500mb level on Saturday, April 14.
We can see a strong storm system digging deep into the Southwest, with another area of lower pressures located just north of Montana. The system in the Southwest does appear to be very intense, judging by the depression in the pressure lines running across the graph. Of interest is also the ridge of high pressure in the eastern US, and the storm system offshore the Mid Atlantic, characterized by the depression of the pressure lines.
Severe weather reports do indicate that a tornado outbreak did occur (or a few cells with long tornadoes), and this could indeed happen again. The details will have to be worked out at a later date, however.
Now, let's take a look to what the FIM is showing going into the 27th of May.
The FIM is showing a deep low pressure system moving into the Southwest as well, with a storm system (potentially tropical) offshore the Southeast and a strong ridge in the East. Does this look familiar? It should. Now, some details still have to be sorted out, but this does appear to match up with the Lezak Recurring Cycle time of about 45-50 days for each cycle. That said, a severe weather event should be expected in the late May timeframe if the LRC holds true.
Props to the
AccuWeather Forums for their extensive knowledge on the subject.
Andrew
13 comments:
Is the FIM your new favorite model? Mine for the past 24 hours has been the Nam. It will change quickly I can assure you. Plains could use some excitement. My favorite model changes with just about every storm./
I have been seeing this on the GFS. I say storm to go on./
Lack of East Coast severe wx is a symptom of El Nino. Weak or mdt Nino+ -NAO= many happy people./
After I saw that the FIM had a microscopic advantage over the GFS, I decided it would be worth looking into. I like the map quality and how it is the only other long range model with 6 hour timeframes other than the GFS.
Very exciting to see you following along. This pattern has been recurring since last Autumn. However it is most remembered for the mid April outbreak and also the late Feb/early Mar out break. The LRC will hold true, it always does, but how it plays out and where it lands on the surface, we'll have to wait an see.
How often do you reference the cycling patterns? Are you daily or weekly or a once and while follower?
Used to be a once in a while person, but have been getting into it as of late. I have to say, your charts and forecasts you make off the LRC are pretty astounding to me. Kudos to you. ;)
Seeing as how much knowledge you have on the subject, I imagine you've been on top of it for quite a while at this point, no?
I appreciate the kudos. This is my full second season following along. So, I am just a sophomore but a willing student. It has become a passion.
My area has 60% chance of precip. in Haysville, KS on next Thursday night the 24th. I'll be on a road trip on the 25th probably hitting or missing the action coincidently. How are the tropics going? Florida will have a strong jet later before June.
I am a fan of the LRC. It has plenty of evidence to support it. Josh, glad that is has become a passion for you! For me it isn't a passion, but I try to incorporate it into my forecasts. I probably should do it more often. Saturdays slight risk for Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Texas; is supported by the LRC. Anonymous, it is terrible to be on a road trip right when there might be excitement. Hope you get to see something; your road trip goes well; and you stay safe! Andrew, with the tropics, the HWRF is one of the best. I am now going to give the FIM more than just a glance. Thanks for telling me it is doing slightly better than the GFS. LRC, proven and true!!!!!!!!!!!!!!/ gySpeci
At the end of my comment I accidentally typed the last part of the password! Sorry about the error!/
The chances moved to Saturday the 26. Figures!
Could a hurricane really hit the east coast this month? I have been scared since Irene.
Josh: The LRC certainly is an amazing weather phenomenon.
ERN WX: I have seen the HWRF be slightly too strong at times, but it is a good model indeed.
Anonymous: The chances are low.
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