Screenshotted from Americanwx Models |
From CIMSS |
The GFS is projecting Invest 94, shown above currently stationed offshore Africa, to move west and quickly develop into a deep tropical system. As you can see, right now Invest 94 is not too organized. Despite the lack of major convection, I am seeing some startling signs of circulation, with a very defined banding pattern evident across the invest's cloud extent. This is very worrying to me, and only a few sustained bursts of convection would be needed to get the invest into a serious player.
From RAMMB CIRA |
However, the past track of Invest 94 displays the clear west-northwest motion of Invest 94. If the system is to pose a threat to the East Coast, a nearly perfect westward path would need to be established, and development would have to be delayed. As we saw with Ernesto, a lack of strength with the system can have the system keep at a westward path, with motions to the south possibly tainted in there as well.
Because the GFS is so long range with it, I question the validity, as I do with all long range forecasts. However, a strangely well-defined circulation and fair west-northwest movement tells me that the East Coast is indeed in a possible path of this system.
Andrew
3 comments:
Andrew Gorden is a cat. 2 hurricane with gusts up to 125 mph. Now thats impressive for a storm that far up north.
Andrew there is also a good site wich has forcast modles on it like the gfs its called weather forcast modle animator and the link is http://webpages.charter.net/wxjoe/animator.htm
Go try it out :)
I have been expecting this for a week now. The GFS soln is logical. I want this!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! LOTS OF RAIN. FLASH FLOODING. Andrew, I am rooting for this soln!!!
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