The system is not negatively tilted, but is also not positively tilted. Thus, the severe threat won't be horrible, but it also won't be too modest. Now, 850mb winds are pretty light in the outlined region above, which would not necessarily suggest a good severe weather event. However, 700mb winds are on the stronger side, which could enhance a tornado threat but also a damaging wind threat. Should this happen overnight, the lower level jet stream would be stronger, giving storms an edge to the severe weather threat.
It will be interesting to see how this threat evolves, with the GFS not showing a major instability sector and the ECMWF not showing intense lower level winds.
Andrew
1 comment:
I bet you have seen they now have a day4 risk out. I like it. GFS shows hints of a poss tropical system around the 20th/21st. I did research on the probabilities of a landfall, and it is something to watch from the Carolinas to New England. Irene??????????? Accuwx put out their fall forecast which seems a bit strange. Yes, I don't expect any Halloween storms (Philly won't see snow till DEC) but things will get cooler. December has a monster snow I think. Very close to Christmas too. Maybe I should put out a winter storm potential zone????? In many days.
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