Latest indications are that Ernesto is moving to the west northwest at 15 MPH. Using rough estimates, I determined that the eye of Ernesto is about 110 miles from the Peninsula (any land, not just a city). Doing some simple calculations gives me a landfall time of about 10-11 PM CT. However, because the motion is to the northwest, another hour is added to the time for good measure.
Ernesto is currently a Category 1 hurricane with a minimum pressure of 983 millibars and wind speeds of up to 80 MPH. This is a long way for Ernesto to come, as the past several days have resulted in multiple bursts of convection that failed to produce anything worthwhile.
Following the first landfall, emergence into the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico is likely, where Ernesto will probably be a tropical storm. I believe Ernesto will then begin a more westward motion, as weaker tropical systems to, and hit Mexico as its second and final landfall. Restrengthening into a hurricane appears possible, but with limited time in the water (about 36 hours in waters close to land), that will be a tedious call. This landfall should happen between Thursday and Friday.
To recap:
-Ernesto is now a Category 1 hurricane.
-Landfall on the eastern side of the Yucatan Peninsula will be roughly around Midnight CT.
-The first major population area affected will be Felipe Carrillo Puerto, Mexico.
-A second landfall on Mexico appears likely.
Andrew
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