The image above shows projected vorticity values on May 5th. Vorticity is the spinning of air, and appears in the presence of storm systems. We see high vorticity values centered in the Midwest, curling into a circular formation across the north-central states. This circular motion in the vorticity areas, combined with multiple full-circle contour lines across the Midwest and the general north-central United States region indicates we are dealing with a massive closed low. The closed low is formed when a storm system is cut off from the jet stream and meanders along with little to no influence from the jet stream. Usually, closed lows are relatively small and are more of a nuisance event. This closed low, however, will be of pattern-changing status. This closed low is just like the others, except it will be so large that the weather pattern across North America will be altered as a result.
What can we expect from this event?
The answer is just what you hope it isn't: we are expecting snowfall across portions of the Midwest, Plains and Ohio Valley. At the moment, accumulation appears possible in areas of higher elevation and areas in the western Ohio Valley. The closed low will bring down a massive bubble of cold air from Canada and spread it around the central and east US to provoke multiple chances of (possibly accumulating) snowfall.
Andrew
9 comments:
Could you include what that means for the Rockies and Front Range, will we see some decent moisture from this event? don't forget about the rest of the US west of the Plains as well
What? Are you kidding me? Why is this happening?
Isn’t this strange to be happening with our weather?
Does this weather have anything to do with the comets
that is circling our atmosphere? I’ve read that we will have
3 comets this year? This really is upsetting to say the least.
Everyone start taking your Vitamin D3 from what I've been
reading we are going to need it due to a mini ice age!
Oh...& my sister gets to miss it all due to moving to
the Sunshine state! I’m sorry for this rant, but I can’t
help it! I do Thank You Andrew for keeping all of us in the
Know! You are priceless! But this is depressing weather!
When do you see this moving out for us? Are we going to
even have a summer? Again, from what I have read…..
we are in to a mini ice age…do you know anything about
this?
Thank you,
bree
It'll be further west than progged. Become a real meteorologist (years of experience) before you forecast for the public.
KMartin -
TheWeatherSpace.com
CEO
Anonymous at 10:57: The Rockies weren't included as they will not bear the brunt of this event. You can still expect a damper on any warm temperature potential.
Bree: As long as the upper stratosphere is agitated, I fear winter will stick around for a while longer.
Kevin: You are not a real meteorologist, you are a weather enthusiast, just like the rest of us with our own websites.
Wrong,
Enthusiasts don't beat NOAA and enthusiasts use only weather models, not brains.
When you get to my level in the field you'll understand, Andrew.
Kevin: It would be best if you no longer visit this blog to keep this website as friendly as possible.
Models have back off of this solution slightly. They still favor a close-low for May 3-5, but 850 mb tamps are considerably warmer today then shown yesterday, especially with the ECMWF which typically performs the best in regards to medium range temp forecasts. I do not think there will be accumulating snowfall except maybe parts of the upper Midwest. The cold Spring so far has messed with model performance, and this one is too aggressive and forecast low temps across NW Indiana Thursday night went from 36 last evening, to 45 at this hour. Sort of a false-alarm in respects to the intensity of this cold pool, but it will take areas from the northern plains into the northeast below average through next weekend. Good news is it's not going to last terrible long.
And Kevin, no need to be rude... even the NWS/NOAA/SPC do not always forecast well. I've been checking up on Andrew's page for months on end, and I can say that at times, he's been more accurate than the NWS. So you ought to look at your own misfortunes before other people's, and not just go onto sites just to bash people. Try using logic. Apparently not using your brain "as you stated", didn't do you too well.
Well put Mr Timmons, I too, grow agitated at the idiots that come here and bash Andrew, and I agree with the fact that he has been more accurate than the NWS in several occasions, but I would say more often than not, that has been the case this year, probably due in part to the fact that Andrew just tells it as it is, rather than using manipulated data to try and push their global warming political agenda, as several weather agencies (and I will not point out names) have been doing for a while now.
By the way Andrew, I trust you enough to where I think I will go ahead and tell you my name, that way you don't have to keep referring to me as anonymous, my name is Cody, and I have been the one who is always asking about my little corner of the nation known as Colorado, I hope we can become friends, because I share your utter enthusiasm for the weather and I plan to stick with this site as long as it exists, as well as I would just like to have some friends who share my interest in what is going with the weather, and to have discussions about current or coming events, just know that you always have my support.
By the way, I just happen to be friends with a professional Meteorologist named Mike Madson (formerly KKTV News 13's chief meteorologist) and I have to say, even he was impressed and nearly blown away by my knowledge of the correlations between weather events in North America and the connection to the rest of the world, many of those correlations I actually learned from your own site, and I mentioned your site to him, and it came from his mouth that this is a very good and insightful place.
That's coming from the word of a veteran meteorologist, so next time someone decides to tell you that you don't know what you're talking about, you can now say that your words are backed by the nation's top meteorologists, including Jim Cantore, who happens to be friends with Mike Madson.
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